Place of registration and place of residence: the non-linear detrimental impact of transportation cost on electoral participation
Place of registration and place of residence: the non-linear detrimental impact of transportation cost on electoral participation
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DOI：
10.1007/s11127-018-0561-1
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Francois, Abel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine;Francois, Abel
法国的案例提供了一个非常宝贵的机会，可以检验交通费用对个人投票决定的影响，因为在法国，选民可以在其居住的市政府以外的市政府登记。与有居民登记的选民相比，无居民登记的选民必须走很远的路才能投票。我们的实证分析，从法国人口普查数据库中提取的一个独特的数据集的基础上，使用一个选择模型来估计一个非居民选民登记的个人选民的投票概率，并评估距离的影响，以投票市对这种概率。分析表明，距离和投票成本对选举投票率有非常显著的影响：在中位数距离（22公里），距离增加1%会导致2012年法国总统选举第一轮投票率下降0.01%，第二轮投票率下降0.007%。此外，距离的影响是非线性的：距离较短的选民的距离增加比距离较远的选民的距离增加对投票率的不利影响更大。这些结果对于从分析其他选举到估计方法的变化等几项检查都是稳健的。这一分析为投票成本及其对选举投票率的影响问题提供了新的见解。
The French case offers a very valuable opportunity for testing the impact of transportation costs on the individual decision of turnout, because in France, voters can be registered in a municipality other than their residential municipality. Voters with a non-residential registration have to travel great distances in order to cast their ballots compared to voters with a residential registration. Our empirical analysis, based on a unique dataset extracted from the French Census database, uses a selection model to estimate the probability of voting of an individual voter with a non-residential electoral registration and assesses the impact of the distance to the voting municipality on this probability. The analysis shows that distance and in fine the cost of voting have a highly significant impact on electoral turnout: at the median distance (22 km), a 1% increase in distance induces a reduction of 0.01% in turnout in the first round of the 2012 French presidential election and 0.007% in the second round. Moreover, the impact of distance is non-linear: an increase in distance for voters with a short distance to travel is more detrimental to turnout than the same increase for voters who travel great distances. The results are robust to several checks, ranging from analyzing other elections to changes in the estimation method. This analysis provides new insights in the issue of voting cost and its impact on electoral turnout.