Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study
Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.f6189
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发表时间：
2013-10-31
影响因子：
105.7
通讯作者：
Scarborough, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Briggs, Adam D. M.;Mytton, Oliver T.;Scarborough, Peter
目的建立英国对含糖饮料征收20%税对超重和肥胖患病率的总体和特定收入影响的模型。设计计量经济学和比较风险评估模型研究。背景英国。人口16岁及以上成人。干预A 20%主要结果测量主要结果是总体和收入特定变化的数量和百分比，超重（身体质量指数>= 25）和肥胖（>= 30）的成年人在英国以下的税收实施。次要结果是按年龄组（16-29岁，30-49岁和>= 50岁）和英国组成国家划分的效果。税收产生的收入和收入的具体变化，每周支出的饮料也estimated.Results一个20%的税收含糖饮料估计减少1.3%的肥胖成年人在英国（95%可信区间0.8%至1.7%）或180 000（110 000至247 000）人，而超重人数则增加0.9%（0.6%至1.1%），即285 000人（201 000至364 000人）。收入三分之一（最低收入）、2和3（最高收入）的肥胖患病率预测下降幅度分别为1.3%（0.3%至2.0%）、0.9%（0.1%至1.6%）和2.1%（1.3%至2.9%）。对肥胖的影响随着年龄的增长而下降。预计年收入为2.76亿磅（2.72亿磅至2.79亿英镑）磅收入三分之一、二分之一和三分之一的饮料总支出估计增长2.1%（1.4%至3.0%）、1.7%（1.2%至2.2%），0.8%结论对含糖饮料征收20%的税将导致英国肥胖患病率降低1.3%（约18万人）。最大的影响可能发生在年轻人身上，收入群体之间没有显著差异。这两种效应都值得进一步探讨。对含糖饮料征税是针对人口肥胖，特别是年轻人肥胖的一项有希望的人口措施。
Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.Setting United Kingdom.Population Adults aged 16 and over.Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks.Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index >= 25) and obese (>= 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and >= 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was 276m pound (272m pound to 279m) pound, with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.