Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: the case of Sweden
Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: the case of Sweden
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DOI：
10.1093/ectj/utaa025
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Cho, Sang-Wook (stanley)
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cho, Sang-Wook (stanley)
本文通过考虑瑞典的一个反事实案例，估计了COVID-19爆发期间非药物干预政策对公共卫生的影响。使用综合控制方法。我发现，严格的初始封锁措施在限制COVID-19感染的传播方面发挥了重要作用，因为如果瑞典的政策制定者采取更严格的遏制政策，该国的感染病例将减少近75%。随着人们根据信息和政策动态调整自己的行为，非药物干预的影响变得明显，大约有5周的时滞。补充的鲁棒性检查和替代的差异中的差异框架分析不会从根本上改变主要结论。最后，将分析扩展到超额死亡率，我发现锁定措施将与瑞典的超额死亡率降低25个百分点相关，最脆弱的老年人群的年龄梯度为29个百分点。这项研究的结果可以帮助决策者制定未来的指导方针，以进一步保护公众健康，并促进经济复苏计划。
This paper estimates the effect of nonpharmaceutical intervention policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach. I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection, as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions becomes visible, with a time lag of around 5 weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality rate in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery.