Glacial lake evolution and glacier-lake interactions in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, 1964-2017
Glacial lake evolution and glacier-lake interactions in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, 1964-2017
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1964-2017年喜马拉雅中部普伊曲河流域冰川湖演化及冰川-湖泊相互作用
DOI：
10.1017/jog.2019.13
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Wang Weicai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Guoqing;Bolch Tobias;Allen Simon;Linsbauer Andreas;Chen Wenfeng;Wang Weicai
尽管之前有研究，但人们对喜马拉雅中部普伊曲河流域的冰川与湖泊相互作用以及未来湖泊的发展仍知之甚少。我们根据光学遥感数据绘制了冰川湖、冰川及其锋面位置和冰流图，并根据数字地形模型计算了冰川表面高程变化。 1964年至2017年间，冰川湖总面积增加了约110%。 1975 年至 2015 年间，冰川以平均约 1.4 km2 a−1 的速度退缩。基于面积的快速扩张（>150%）以及之前研究的信息，有 8 个湖泊被认为是潜在危险的冰川湖。相应的湖泊终止冰川整体退缩 6.0 ± 1.4 至 26.6 ± 1.1 m a−1 并伴随着湖泊扩张。区域平均冰川海拔变化为-0.39±0.13 m a−1，而与8个潜在危险湖泊相关的冰川从1974年到2017年降低了-0.71±0.05 m a−1。从2013年到2017年，这些冰川的平均冰流速为~10 m a−1；大约是整个研究区域平均值的两倍。对这些数据以及气候观测的分析表明，冰融化和崩解过程在推动湖泊扩大方面发挥着主导作用。未来湖泊发展的模型表明，随着预计的冰川衰退，新湖泊可能会出现，现有湖泊可能会扩大。
Despite previous studies, glacier–lake interactions and future lake development in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, are still not well understood. We mapped glacial lakes, glaciers, their frontal positions and ice flow from optical remote sensing data, and calculated glacier surface elevation change from digital terrain models. During 1964–2017, the total glacial-lake area increased by ~110%. Glaciers retreated with an average rate of ~1.4 km2 a−1 between 1975 and 2015. Based on rapid area expansion (>150%), and information from previous studies, eight lakes were considered to be potentially dangerous glacial lakes. Corresponding lake-terminating glaciers showed an overall retreat of 6.0 ± 1.4 to 26.6 ± 1.1 m a−1 and accompanying lake expansion. The regional mean glacier elevation change was −0.39 ± 0.13 m a−1 while the glaciers associated with the eight potentially dangerous lakes lowered by −0.71 ± 0.05 m a−1 from 1974 to 2017. The mean ice flow speed of these glaciers was ~10 m a−1 from 2013 to 2017; about double the mean for the entire study area. Analysis of these data along with climate observations suggests that ice melting and calving processes play the dominant role in driving lake enlargement. Modelling of future lake development shows where new lakes might emerge and existing lakes could expand with projected glacial recession.