Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation
Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of desert reptiles and amphibians: Assisted migration and acclimation rescue from extirpation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168431
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发表时间：
2023-11-16
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
de la Cruz，Fausto R. Mendez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sinervo，Barry;Resendiz，Rafael A. Lara;de la Cruz，Fausto R. Mendez
最近的气候变化应该会导致物种向北部或高海拔山脉边缘扩张，而在南半球和北半球低海拔边缘物种收缩，原因是局部灭绝或范围转移或两者兼而有之。我们结合了美国大陆和墨西哥的博物馆发生记录，以及为世界蜥蜴家族开发的新的生态生理灭绝模型，预测了气候变化情景下30种沙漠特有爬行动物和两栖动物的分布。该模型预测，在未来50年内，所有30个物种中，38%的当地种群将灭绝。然而，在森林覆盖的地点和当代山脉中山地环境的存在，物种灭绝可能会减弱。在这30个物种中，有3个物种因超过其温度极限而面临非常高的灭绝风险，这说明了生态生理模拟方法对保护研究的预测价值。与限制二氧化碳排放的全球战略相结合，我们为现有和新的保护区提出了紧急的区域管理战略，目标是三个物种：到2070年面临高度灭绝风险的斑羚、沙漠短角蜥蜴和莫拉夫卡沙漠龟。这些战略侧重于气候避难所内的协助迁徙和保护，例如高海拔和森林栖息地。通过将我们的灭绝风险模型与缺口分析相结合，我们预测了应该在哪里建立新的储备。我们还强调，驯化(即表型可塑性)可以改善灭绝的风险，但很少包括在生态生理学模型中。我们使用Ambystomasalamanders来展示如何将适应纳入到这种灭绝风险的模型中。
Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins in the northern hemisphere, because of local extirpations or range shifts or both. We combined museum occurrence records from both the continental U.S. and Mexico with a new eco-physiological model of extinction developed for lizard families of the world to predict the distributions of 30 desert-endemic reptile and amphibian species under climate change scenarios. The model predicts that 38 % of local populations will go extinct in the next 50 years, across all 30 species. However, extinctions may be attenuated in forested sites and by the presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. Of the 30 species, three were at very high risk of extinction as a result of their thermal limits being exceeded, which illustrates the predictive value of ecophysiological modeling approaches for conservation studies. In tandem with global strategies of limiting CO2emissions, we propose urgent regional management strategies for existing and new reserves that are targeted at three species: Barred Tiger Salamander (Ambystomatidae:Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), Desert Short-horned Lizard (Phrynosomatidae:Phrynosomaornatissimum), and Morafka's Desert Tortoise (Testudinidae:Gopherus morafkai), which face a high risk of extinction by 2070. These strategies focus on assisted migration and preservation within climatic refugia, such as high-elevation and forested habitats. We forecast where new reserves should be established by merging our model of extinction risk with gap analysis. We also highlight that acclimation (i.e., phenotypic plasticity) could ameliorate risk of extinction but is rarely included in ecophysiological models. We useAmbystomasalamanders to show how acclimation can be incorporated into such models of extinction risk.