Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures
Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures
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令人惊讶的海洋温度给自然和人类社区带来的挑战
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1901084116
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
N. Wolff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Pershing;N. Record;B. Franklin;B. Kennedy;Loren McClenachan;Katherine E. Mills;James D. Scott;A. Thomas;N. Wolff
根据历史和生活经验，人们期望在他们所依赖的生态系统中存在某些条件。气候变化现在正在产生强大的趋势，使条件超出历史水平。以海洋生态系统为例，我们发现异常温度出现的频率比预期的要快。然后，我们利用这些事件作为动机，发展一种理论，说明温度趋势和事件将如何影响自然和人类社区。该理论认为，强烈的趋势会降低自然群落的丰度和生产力。不断增长的趋势也将挑战人们的决策方式，我们的理论确定了人们在哪些条件下押注趋势会获得可观的回报。特定地点的物种群落、人类制度和人类活动是由该地点的历史条件（包括平均条件和变化条件）形成的。人为气候变化现在在现有的自然变率之上增加了强烈的趋势。这些趋势提高了“意外”发生的频率——基于近期历史的意外情况。在这里，我们表明，根据最近的温度趋势，海洋温度惊人的频率增加的速度甚至比预期的还要快。通过使用一个简单的人类适应模型，我们表明这些意外将越来越多地挑战依赖于历史经验的自然适应模式。我们还表明，变暖速度可能会使自然群落向多面手物种转变，从而降低它们的生产力和多样性。我们的研究表明，押注趋势将持续下去对个人和机构的好处越来越大，但这一策略代表了一种激进的转变，对许多人来说很难实现。
Significance Based on historical and lived experience, people expect certain conditions to prevail in the ecosystems they depend upon. Climate change is now introducing strong trends that push conditions beyond historic levels. Using ocean ecosystems as a case study, we show that the frequency of surprising temperatures is increasing faster than expected. We then use these events as motivation to develop a theory for how temperature trends and events will impact natural and human communities. The theory suggests that strong trends will decrease the abundance and productivity of natural communities. Increasing trends will also challenge how people make decisions, and our theory identifies the conditions under which there is a significant payoff for people to bet on the trend. The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. These trends elevate the frequency of “surprises”—conditions that are unexpected based on recent history. Here, we show that the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures has increased even faster than expected based on recent temperature trends. Using a simple model of human adaptation, we show that these surprises will increasingly challenge natural modes of adaptation that rely on historical experience. We also show that warming rates are likely to shift natural communities toward generalist species, reducing their productivity and diversity. Our work demonstrates increasing benefits for individuals and institutions from betting that trends will continue, but this strategy represents a radical shift that will be difficult for many to make.