A two-sex model of human papillomavirus infection: Vaccination strategies and a case study
A two-sex model of human papillomavirus infection: Vaccination strategies and a case study
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111006
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发表时间：
2022-01-15
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Rong, Libin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao, Shasha;Martcheva, Maia;Rong, Libin
接种疫苗可有效预防人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）感染。是否应该将男性纳入疫苗接种计划仍然存在争议，也不清楚如何根据性别分配疫苗以实现最大效益。在本文中，我们使用一个两性模型来评估HPV疫苗接种策略，并使用来自中国广西的数据作为案例研究。数学分析和数值模拟表明，当优先接种招募率较低的性别时，基本繁殖数（感染传播潜力的重要指标）达到最小值。在疫苗数量固定的情况下，平均分配疫苗通常会导致较大的基本繁殖数和较高的感染流行率。一旦疫苗的数量超过了较小的男女招募率，疫苗接种在减少感染方面就不那么有效了。在案例研究中，我们估计15-55岁人群中HPV 16/18的基本生殖数为1.0333。要使该病的流行率低于0.05%，每年最少需要接种24050支二价HPV疫苗，应接种给女性。然而，这种疫苗接种策略需要很长的时间和大量的疫苗才能实现这一目标。与每年分配相同的疫苗数量相比，我们发现，一开始多接种疫苗，后来少接种疫苗的可变疫苗接种策略可以节省时间和总疫苗数量。本研究说明的可变疫苗接种策略可以帮助更好地分配疫苗以降低HPV患病率。虽然这项工作是针对HPV感染的，案例研究是针对中国的一个省，但该模型、分析和结论可能适用于其他地区或国家的其他性传播疾病。(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Vaccination is effective in preventing human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. It still remains debatable whether males should be included in a vaccination program and unclear how to allocate the vaccine in genders to achieve the maximum benefits. In this paper, we use a two-sex model to assess HPV vaccination strategies and use the data from Guangxi Province in China as a case study. Both mathematical analysis and numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number, an important indicator of the transmission potential of the infection, achieves its minimum when the priority of vaccination is given to the gender with a smaller recruit rate. Given a fixed amount of vaccine, splitting the vaccine evenly usually leads to a larger basic reproduction number and a higher prevalence of infection. Vaccination becomes less effective in reducing the infection once the vaccine amount exceeds the smaller recruit rate of the two genders. In the case study, we estimate the basic reproduction number is 1.0333 for HPV 16/18 in people aged 15-55. The minimal bivalent HPV vaccine needed for the disease prevalence to be below 0.05% is 24050 per year, which should be given to females. However, with this vaccination strategy it would require a very long time and a large amount of vaccine to achieve the goal. In contrast with allocating the same vaccine amount every year, we find that a variable vaccination strategy with more vaccine given in the beginning followed by less vaccine in later years can save time and total vaccine amount. The variable vaccination strategy illustrated in this study can help to better distribute the vaccine to reduce the HPV prevalence. Although this work is for HPV infection and the case study is for a province in China, the model, analysis and conclusions may be applicable to other sexually transmitted diseases in other regions or countries.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.