Impacts of climate change on building heating and cooling energy patterns in California
Impacts of climate change on building heating and cooling energy patterns in California
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2012.05.013
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发表时间：
2012-08
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
P. Xu;Y. Huang;N. Miller;N. Schlegel;Pengyuan Shen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Xu;Y. Huang;N. Miller;N. Schlegel;Pengyuan Shen
全球气候变化正在使加州温和的地中海气候显着变暖，预计会对建筑能源使用产生重大影响。关于气候变化对不同类型建筑峰值负荷模式变化的影响，关于建筑制冷和能源需求的研究不准确且不充分。本研究利用存档的全循环模型 (GCM) 预测，并将这些数据在统计上缩小到现场比例，以用于建筑制冷和供暖模拟。建筑能源使用量预计到2040年、2070年和2100年。这项研究发现，在未来冷却技术保持在同一水平的情况下，在IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）最坏的碳排放情景A1F1下，未来100年加州某些地区的冷却用电量将增加50%。在IPCC最有可能的碳排放情景（A2）下，冷却用电量将增加约25%。某些类型的建筑物比其他建筑物对气候变化更敏感。所有建筑物的总能耗（包括供暖和制冷）只会略有增加。
Global climate change is making California's mild Mediterranean climate significantly warmer, and a substantial impact on building energy usage is anticipated. Studies on building cooling and energy demand have been inaccurate and insufficient regarding the impacts of climate change on the peak load pattern shifts of different kinds of buildings. This study utilized archived General Circulation Model (GCM) projections and statistically downscaled these data to the site scale for use in building cooling and heating simulations. Building energy usage was projected out to the years of 2040, 2070, and 2100. This study found that under the condition that the cooling technology stays at the same level in the future, electricity use for cooling will increase by 50% over the next 100 years in certain areas of California under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)'s worst-case carbon emission scenario, A1F1. Under the IPCC's most likely carbon emission scenario (A2), cooling electricity usage will increase by about 25%. Certain types of buildings will be more sensitive to climate change than others. The aggregated energy consumption of all buildings including both heating and cooling will only increase slightly.