Time trends in childhood and adolescent obesity in England from 1995 to 2007 and projections of prevalence to 2015
Time trends in childhood and adolescent obesity in England from 1995 to 2007 and projections of prevalence to 2015
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DOI：
10.1136/jech.2009.098723
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发表时间：
2010-02-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Head, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stamatakis, E.;Zaninotto, P.;Head, J.
背景的目的是检查1995 - 2007年的儿童和青少年肥胖趋势，并按年龄组和社会阶级按2015年到2015年的盛行。重复的横断面调查。肥胖是使用国际标准计算的。到2015年的患病率预测是基于线性和非线性趋势的推断。RESULTS肥胖症患病率从1995年增加到2007年的男孩中的3.1％增加到6.9％，在女孩中，肥胖症患病率从3.1％增加到5.2％到7.4％。有迹象表明2004/5过去的趋势趋于平稳。假设有线性趋势，2015年的肥胖症患病率为10.1％（95％CI 7.5至12.6），女孩为8.9％（5.8至12.1），男性为8.0％（4.5、11.5），为9.7％（6.0，6.0， 13.3）在女性青少年中。手动社会阶层中的预计患病率明显高于非人工类别[男孩：10.7％（6.6至14.9）vs 7.9％（3.7至12.1）；女孩：11.2％（7.0至15.3）vs 5.4％（1.3至9.4）；男性青少年：10.0％（5.2至14.8）vs 6.7％（3.4至10.0）；女性青少年：10.4％（5.0至15.8）vs 8.3％（4.3至12.4）]。结论如果年轻肥胖的趋势继续，到2015年，英格兰肥胖年轻人的百分比和数量将大大增加手册和非手动课程将进一步扩大。这凸显了需要采取公共卫生行动来扭转近期趋势和健康不平等的狭窄趋势。
Background The aim was to examine the 1995-2007 childhood and adolescent obesity trends and project prevalence to 2015 by age group and social class.Methods Participants were children aged 2-10 and adolescents aged 11-18 years from general population households in England studied using repeated cross-sectional surveys. Obesity was computed using international standards. Prevalence projections to 2015 were based on extrapolation of linear and non-linear trends.Results Obesity prevalence increased from 1995 to 2007 from 3.1% to 6.9% among boys, and 5.2% to 7.4% among girls. There are signs of a levelling off trend past 2004/5. Assuming a linear trend, the 2015 projected obesity prevalence is 10.1% (95% CI 7.5 to 12.6) in boys and 8.9% (5.8 to 12.1) in girls, and 8.0% (4.5, 11.5) in male and 9.7% (6.0, 13.3) in female adolescents. Projected prevalence in manual social classes is markedly higher than in non-manual classes [ boys: 10.7% (6.6 to 14.9) vs 7.9% (3.7 to 12.1); girls: 11.2% (7.0 to 15.3) vs 5.4% (1.3 to 9.4); male adolescents: 10.0% (5.2 to 14.8) vs 6.7% (3.4 to 10.0); female adolescents: 10.4% (5.0 to 15.8) vs 8.3% (4.3 to 12.4)].Conclusion If the trends in young obesity continue, the percentage and numbers of obese young people in England will increase considerably by 2015 and the existing obesity gap between manual and non-manual classes will widen further. This highlights the need for public health action to reverse recent trends and narrow social inequalities in health.