Cigarette demand in South Africa over 1996-2006: The role of price, income and health awareness
Cigarette demand in South Africa over 1996-2006: The role of price, income and health awareness
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1813-6982.2008.00157.x
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发表时间：
2008-03-01
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Boshoff, Willem H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boshoff, Willem H.
该研究旨在重新调查1996年至2006年期间价格，收入和健康意识在南非卷烟需求演变中的作用。乍一看，卷烟价格的上涨似乎在样本期内，特别是在90年代后期，对减少卷烟消费起了重要作用。但是，价格上涨对总体经济状况和吸烟者整体健康意识的影响有多大？特别是，由于缺乏数据，在南非，保健意识没有得到足够的重视。以前对卷烟需求的价格和收入弹性的估计是基于长期的年度时间序列数据，不考虑潜在口味和偏好的变化。本文试图使用季度数据集来理清价格、收入、健康意识和政策干预的力量。此外，该研究还警告说，鉴于南非非法卷烟数量的增加，从正式卷烟销售数据得出的估计值存在向上偏差。
The study seeks to re-investigate the role of price, income and health awareness in the evolution of South African cigarette demand over the period 1996 to 2006. At first glance, rising cigarette prices appear to have played an important role in reducing cigarette consumption over the sample period, especially during the late 90s. But how dependent is the impact of price increases on general economic conditions and overall health awareness among smokers? Health awareness, in particular, has not received sufficient attention in the South African context, due to a lack of data. Previous estimates of price and income elasticities of cigarette demand are based on long annual time series data, which do not allow for changes in underlying tastes and preferences. The paper attempts to disentangle the forces of price, income, health awareness and policy intervention using a quarterly data set. In addition, the study also cautions against the upward bias in estimates derived from formal cigarette sales data - in the light of increasing illicit cigarette volumes in South Africa.