The Shape of Advertising Response Functions Revisited: A Model of Dynamic Probabilistic Thresholds
The Shape of Advertising Response Functions Revisited: A Model of Dynamic Probabilistic Thresholds
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DOI：
10.1287/mksc.1030.0035
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
D. Vakratsas;F. Feinberg;F. Bass;G. Kalyanaram
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Vakratsas;F. Feinberg;F. Bass;G. Kalyanaram
先前的市场营销工作表明，广告门槛效应--低于这个水平基本上没有销售反应--在实践中很少遇到。由于广告策略通过早期的试验和错误进入有效范围，因此无法直接观察到阈值，并且其存在的论据必须主要基于“统计足迹”，即一系列模型类型的相对适合性。为了检测可能的阈值效应，我们制定了一个切换回归模型，两个“政权”，其中只有一个广告是有效的。调解两种机制之间的切换是类别特定动态变量的逻辑函数（例如，进入市场的顺序、进入市场的时间、竞争者的数量）和广告水平，嵌套了各种替代配方，其中包括标准凹型和S型反应。参数相关模型之间的一系列比较强烈地表明：阈值效应存在;市场份额对广告的反应不一定是全局凹的;上级拟合不能单独归因于模型的灵活性;以及动态、环境、竞争和品牌特定因素可以影响广告效果。这些影响在两个不断发展的耐用品类别（SUV和小型货车）中很明显，尽管在一个成熟的非耐用品类别（液体洗涤剂）中没有研究。
Prior work in marketing has suggested that advertising threshold effects -levels beneath which there is essentially no sales response-are rarely encountered in practice. Because advertising policies settle into effective ranges through early trial and error, thresholds cannot be observed directly, and arguments for their existence must be based primarily on a "statistical footprint," that is, on relative fits of a range of model types. To detect possible threshold effects, we formulate a switching regression model with two "regimes," in only one of which advertising is effective. Mediating the switch between the two regimes is a logistic function of category-specific dynamic variables (e.g., order of entry, time in market, number of competitors) and advertising levels, nesting a variety of alternative formulations, among them both standard concave and S-shaped responses. A sequence of comparisons among parametrically related models strongly suggests: that threshold effects exist; that market share response to advertising is not necessarily globally concave; that superior fit cannot be attributed to model flexibility alone; and that dynamic, environmental, competitive, and brand-specific factors can influence advertising effectiveness. These effects are evident in two evolving durables categories (SUVs and minivans), although not in the one mature, nondurable category (liquid detergent) studied.