Exploring the influential factors in incident clearance time: Disentangling causation from self-selection bias
Exploring the influential factors in incident clearance time: Disentangling causation from self-selection bias
复制标题
探索事件清除时间的影响因素：从自我选择偏差中解开因果关系
DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2015.08.024
复制
发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Wang, Yunpeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ding, Chuan;Ma, Xiaolei;Wang, Yunpeng
了解影响因素与事件清理时间之间的关系对于事件管理机构制定有效的应对措施至关重要。虽然已经有了一定数量的研究成果，事故处理时间模型，有限的努力，以调查事件响应时间和它的自我选择在影响清除时间的相对作用。为了填补这一空白，本研究采用内源性转换模型探讨了事件清除时间的影响因素，旨在从反应过程引起的自我选择偏差中解脱因果关系。在联合两阶段模型框架下，分别建立了事件响应时间和清除时间的二元概率单位模型和切换回归模型。基于华盛顿州高速公路事件数据，采用完全信息极大似然法（FIML）估计内生切换模型参数。可以确定影响事故响应时间和清理时间的重要因素，包括事故、时间、地理、环境、交通和操作属性。估计结果揭示了事件、时间、地理、环境、交通和运营因素对事件响应时间和清理时间的影响。此外，事件响应时间本身的因果关系及其对事件清除时间的自我选择修正也是不可或缺的。这些发现表明，如果不考虑自我选择偏差，反应时间对事件清除时间的因果影响将被高估。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Understanding the relationships between influential factors and incident clearance time is crucial to make effective countermeasures for incident management agencies. Although there have been a certain number of achievements on incident clearance time modeling, limited effort is made to investigate the relative role of incident response time and its self-selection in influencing the clearance time. To fill this gap, this study uses the endogenous switching model to explore the influential factors in incident clearance time, and aims to disentangle causation from self-selection bias caused by response process. Under the joint two-stage model framework, the binary probit model and switching regression model are formulated for both incident response time and clearance time, respectively. Based on the freeway incident data collected in Washington State, full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method is utilized to estimate the endogenous switching model parameters. Significant factors affecting incident response time and clearance time can be identified, including incident, temporal, geographical, environmental, traffic and operational attributes. The estimate results reveal the influential effects of incident, temporal, geographical, environmental, traffic and operational factors on incident response time and clearance time. In addition, the causality of incident response time itself and its self-selection correction on incident clearance time are found to be indispensable. These findings suggest that the causal effect of response time on incident clearance time will be overestimated if the self-selection bias is not considered. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.