A system dynamics based model for coal investment
A system dynamics based model for coal investment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2006.09.015
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发表时间：
2007-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Ying Fan;Rui-Guang Yang;Yi-Ming Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ying Fan;Rui-Guang Yang;Yi-Ming Wei
煤炭是中国的主要能源。近年来，随着我国经济持续稳定发展，煤炭供需虽然保持平衡，但可持续生产能力却严重下降。本文建立了考虑煤炭工业投资、可用储量、矿山建设和煤炭供应能力的系统动力学模型。利用该模型考察了国有矿山和地质勘查投资的影响。并提出了最优投资规模。
Coal is the dominating energy source in China. Although the supply and demand of coal has kept equilibrium along with China's continuous and steady economic development in recent years, the sustainable production ability has been seriously decreasing. In this paper, a system dynamics model is developed taking the investment in coal industry, available reserves, mine construction and coal supply capability into account. With the model, the impact of the investment in state-owned mines and geological prospecting is investigated. And the optimal investment size is put forward.