A phased approach to unlocking during the COVID-19 pandemic-Lessons from trend analysis
A phased approach to unlocking during the COVID-19 pandemic-Lessons from trend analysis
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DOI：
10.1111/ijcp.13528
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发表时间：
2020-05-19
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Heald, Adrian H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stedman, Mike;Davies, Mark;Heald, Adrian H.
背景COVID-19大流行导致对社会行为的激进政治控制。本文的目的是探讨数据趋势从流行病有关感染率/政策的影响，并提请学习点，为通知解锁process.Methods每日公布的情况下，在英格兰的149个上层地方当局（UTLA）地区被转换为平均每日感染率（AIBR），R值--在感染期内被一名感染者感染的其他人数，同时计算感染率变化率（RCIR）。结果到2020年4月19日，感染率R已从封锁前3月23日的2. 8下降，并稳定在足以抑制的0. 8左右。然而，英格兰各地区之间的差异仍然很大。UTLA之间的回归分析发现，与Ablation减少相关的唯一因素是每千人口确认感染的历史数量，但是，上层地方当局（UTLA）地区之间存在很大差异。对这些结果的外推表明，未报告的社区感染可能比报告的病例高出150倍，这提供了证据表明，到4月第二周结束时，26.8%的人口可能已经患有这种疾病，因此免疫力增强。解释使用感染率分析当前病例数据提供了对当前国家状态的新见解，并可用于更好地就未来管理受限制的社会行为和行动作出知情决定。
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to radical political control of social behaviour. The purpose of this paper is to explore data trends from the pandemic regarding infection rates/policy impact and draw learning points for informing the unlocking process.Methods The daily published cases in England in each of 149 Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA) areas were converted to Average Daily Infection Rate (ADIR), an R value-the number of further people infected by one infected person during their infectious phase with Rate of Change of Infection Rate (RCIR) also calculated. Stepwise regression was carried out to see what local factors could be linked to differences in local infection rates.Findings By the 19th April 2020 the infection R has fallen from 2.8 on 23rd March before the lockdown and has stabilised at about 0.8 sufficient for suppression. However, there remain significant variations between England regions. Regression analysis across UTLAs found that the only factor relating to reduction in ADIR was the historic number of confirmed number infection/000 population, There is, however, wide variation between Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) areas. Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be 150 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the 2nd week in April, 26.8% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity.Interpretation Analysis of current case data using infectious ratio has provided novel insight into the current national state and can be used to make better-informed decisions about future management of restricted social behaviour and movement.