Closing the gap between palaeontological and neontological speciation and extinction rate estimates
Closing the gap between palaeontological and neontological speciation and extinction rate estimates
复制标题
缩小古生物学和新生学物种形成和灭绝率估计之间的差距
作者：
D. Silvestro;R. Warnock;Alexandra Gavryushkina;T. Stadler
测量物种形成和灭绝发生的速度对于理解生物多样性的起源和演变至关重要。生物化石记录和分子遗传学都可以提供物种形成和灭绝速率的独立估计，但往往产生惊人的分歧结果。尽管其含义，这种差异的理论原因仍然未知。在这里，我们揭示了一个概念和方法的基础，能够调和古生物学和分子证据：差异是由不同的隐含假设古生物学和新生物学分析的物种形成和物种进化的过程。我们提出了“出生死亡的年代物种”模型，澄清了物种形成和灭绝过程的定义，允许一个连贯的联合分析化石和系统发育数据。使用模拟和实证分析，我们不仅证明了这个模型解释了很多明显的不一致之间的化石和生物成因，但率估计的差异实际上是信息的流行不同的物种形成模式。从分子和化石数据重建进化史往往是冲突的。在这里，作者表明，物种形成和灭绝速率的差异可能源于对潜在过程的不同假设，并提出了一个协调化石和分子证据的模型。
Measuring the pace at which speciation and extinction occur is fundamental to understanding the origin and evolution of biodiversity. Both the fossil record and molecular phylogenies of living species can provide independent estimates of speciation and extinction rates, but often produce strikingly divergent results. Despite its implications, the theoretical reasons for this discrepancy remain unknown. Here, we reveal a conceptual and methodological basis able to reconcile palaeontological and molecular evidence: discrepancies are driven by different implicit assumptions about the processes of speciation and species evolution in palaeontological and neontological analyses. We present the “birth-death chronospecies” model that clarifies the definition of speciation and extinction processes allowing for a coherent joint analysis of fossil and phylogenetic data. Using simulations and empirical analyses we demonstrate not only that this model explains much of the apparent incongruence between fossils and phylogenies, but that differences in rate estimates are actually informative about the prevalence of different speciation modes. Reconstructions of evolutionary history from molecular vs. fossil data are often in conflict. Here, the authors show that discrepancies in speciation and extinction rates can arise from differing assumptions about underlying processes and present a model that reconciles fossil and molecular evidence.