Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale
Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale
复制标题
你的愿景还是我的模型？
DOI：
10.1007/s11213-008-9104-x
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Y. Hoogeveen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Volkery;Teresa Ribeiro;T. Henrichs;Y. Hoogeveen
在过去几年中，情景发展的参与性进程受到越来越多的关注。将定性的利益相关者信息和定量的专家信息(即建模)相结合，提供了从不同角度混合良好数据、科学严谨性、想象力和专业知识的独特机会。然而，这项任务几乎很容易，因为它需要仔细平衡各种方法，并接受不同水平的知识和对不同方法的信任，跨越学科边界。尽管文献越来越多，但我们仍处于学习如何有效处理参与式情景开发的早期阶段。在欧洲环境署的前奏项目中，采用了一种影响相对深远的参与式方案制定办法：欧洲各地的一组利益攸关方被赋予与专家和模型师合作制定长期替代土地使用方案的全部责任。这些设想后来用于与欧洲和成员国一级的主要客户和利益攸关方的正式外联进程。本文的目的是记录所使用的方法，分析它们的优点和缺点，并得出一些关于情景开发中参与性过程的一般性结论。本文认为，在未来的情景开发中，需要更加重视加强定性和定量分析的结合。一套令人信服和连贯的故事情节可以有效地引发政策制定者和主要利益攸关方之间关于未来潜在事态发展和相关应对战略的战略对话。与量化结果的弱整合可能会破坏这一结果，这是任何情景演练的最终目标之一。
Participatory processes in scenario development have received increasing attention throughout the last years. Combining qualitative stakeholder and quantitative expert information (i.e. modelling) offers unique opportunities to mix good data, scientific rigour, imagination and expertise from different perspectives. However, this task is all but easy as it requires a careful balancing of approaches and an acceptance of different levels of knowledge and trust in different methods across disciplinary boundaries. In spite of a growing body of literature we are still in the early stages of learning how to deal effectively with participatory scenario development. In the PRELUDE project of the European Environment Agency a relatively far-reaching participatory approach to scenario development was applied: a group of stakeholders from across Europe was given full responsibility to develop long-term alternative land use scenarios in cooperation with experts and modellers. The scenarios have been used in a formal outreach process with key clients and stakeholders at the European and Member State level afterwards. The aim of this paper is to document the methods used, analyse their strengths and weaknesses and draw some general conclusions regarding participatory processes in scenario development. This paper argues that in future scenario development more attention needs to be paid to strengthen the integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis. A set of compelling and coherent storylines can effectively trigger strategic conversations among policy-makers and key stakeholders about potential future developments and related response strategies. A weak integration with quantitative results can undermine this outcome, which is one of the ultimate objectives of any scenario exercise.