Transfer demand prediction for timed transfer coordination in public transport operational control
Transfer demand prediction for timed transfer coordination in public transport operational control
复制标题
公共交通运行控制中定时换乘协调的换乘需求预测
DOI：
10.1002/atr.1440
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
E. Chung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Kieu;A. Bhaskar;P. E. M. Almeida;Nasser R. Sabar;E. Chung
公共交通中的定时换乘协调通过提供无缝互联换乘来减少乘客换乘时间。当接收车辆 (RV) 在运载换乘乘客的供给车辆 (FV) 之前到达换乘站时，就会出现问题。运行控制中的定时换乘协调动态地决定房车是停在换乘站以允许换乘，还是按计划出发。虽然换乘需求对于实施定时换乘协调至关重要，但由于缺乏乘客换乘计划，这一变量在公共交通中通常不可用。实时获取该变量的问题在相关文献中也受到有限的关注。本文提出了一种动态预测换乘需求的新方法。我们通过检查历史旅行行程来预测每位乘客的换乘概率。开发了三种不同类型的模型（简单分析模型、统计模型和计算智能模型）来预测换乘乘客数量。使用澳大利亚昆士兰州东南部观测到的自动车辆定位和自动收费数据进行的数值实验表明，所提出的模型在定时换乘协调方面的准确性和适用性。
Timed transfer coordination in public transit reduces passenger transfer time by providing seamless interconnected transfers. The problem arises when a Receiving Vehicle (RV) arrives to the transfer stop before a Feeding Vehicle (FV) carrying transferring passengers. Timed transfer coordination in operational control dynamically decides whether a RV is held at the transfer stop to allow transfers, or departs as scheduled. While transfer demand is essential for implementing timed transfer coordination, this variable is generally not available in public transit because of the lack of passenger transfer plans. The problem of acquiring this variable in real-time has also received limited attention in the related literature. This paper proposes a new method to dynamically predict the transfer demand. We anticipate the transferring probability from each individual passenger by examining historical travel itineraries. Three different types of models (simple analytical, statistical, and computation intelligence model) are developed to forecast the number of transferring passengers. Numerical experiments using observed Automatic Vehicle Location and Automatic Fare Collection data from South East Queensland, Australia show the accuracy and applicability of the proposed models in timed transfer coordination.