Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system
Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.1863
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发表时间：
2009-12
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Marengo;Richard G. Jones;L. Alves;M. Valverde
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文献类型：
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作者：
J. Marengo;Richard G. Jones;L. Alves;M. Valverde
本文利用PRECIS区域气候模拟系统，分析了IPCC SRES A2和B2排放情景下南美洲近一时期（1961-1990年）和未来（2071-2100年）气候极端温度和降水的分布。结果表明，在当前气候条件下，该模式较好地模拟了极端温度和极端降雨事件的空间分布，其中温度事件更为真实。对该区域的观测远不全面，影响了模式质量的评估。在考虑的所有未来气候情景中，该地区的所有地区都将经历重大且往往不同的极端降雨和温度变化。在未来，整个热带南美洲暖夜事件的发生预计将更加频繁，而冷夜事件的发生可能会减少。预计极端降雨和干旱期也会发生重大变化。其中包括南美洲东南部和亚马孙西部大部分地区极端降水事件的强度增加，这与预计这些地区总降雨量增加的趋势一致。在巴西东北部和亚马逊东部，预估的降雨强度变化较小或没有变化，但连续干旱天数的频率发生了显著变化。版权所有©2009英国皇家气象学会
Using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system this study analyses the distribution of extremes of temperature and precipitation in South America in the recent past (1961–1990) and in a future (2071–2100) climate under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. The results show that for the present climate the model simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme temperature and rainfall events when compared with observations, with temperature the more realistic. The observations over the region are far from comprehensive which compromises the assessment of model quality. In all the future climate scenarios considered all parts of the region would experience significant and often different changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. In the future, the occurrence of warm nights is projected to be more frequent in the entire tropical South America while the occurrence of cold night events is likely to decrease. Significant changes in rainfall extremes and dry spells are also projected. These include increased intensity of extreme precipitation events over most of Southeastern South America and western Amazonia consistent with projected increasing trends in total rainfall in these regions. In Northeast Brazil and eastern Amazonia smaller or no changes are seen in projected rainfall intensity though significant changes are seen in the frequency of consecutive dry days. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society