Things are different today: the challenge of global systemic risks
Things are different today: the challenge of global systemic risks
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/13669877.2017.1409252
复制
发表时间：
2019-04-03
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Jaeger, Carlo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Renn, Ortwin;Lucas, Klaus;Jaeger, Carlo
虽然大多数经合组织国家在减少对人类生命、健康和环境质量的风险方面相当成功，但在气候变化、流行病、金融崩溃和社会不平等等新的全球风险方面的记录却远没有那么令人信服。这就是系统性风险的挑战。自全球金融危机以来，它迅速受到越来越多的关注。然而，相当大的概念混乱妨碍了对这一挑战的研究和实际反应。我们从金融危机的典型例子开始，努力澄清概念。这导致了一种观点，即全局系统涉及系统内部微观和宏观动力学之间的相互作用，系统同时与环境相互作用。这种动态通常显示出一段稳定时期，不时出现几种可能的未来。与其他期货一样，如果代理人认为其中一些期货不如其他期货理想，那么其他全球期货也会构成风险。代理人可能对他们想要避免的未来有字典偏好，因此认为一些未来是不受欢迎的，而另一些则是灾难性的。从这个意义上说，如果一个代理人预期在全球系统的一个分岔点上的一些相关期货将是灾难性的，那么他们就面临着系统性风险。
While most OECD countries have been rather successful in reducing risks to human lives, health, and the quality of the environment, the record for new global risks such as climate change, pandemics, financial breakdowns, and social inequality is much less convincing. This is the challenge of systemic risks. Since the global financial crisis, it has received rapidly growing attention. However, considerable conceptual confusion mars research on and practical responses to this challenge. We undertake an effort of conceptual clarification, starting with the paradigmatic example of the financial crisis. This leads to a view of global systems as involving an interplay between micro- and macrodynamics internal to the system, with the system simultaneously interacting with its environment. Such dynamics typically show periods of stability, punctuated by situations opening up several possible futures. Alternative global futures, like other prospects, constitute risks for an agent if she considers some of these futures as less desirable than others. Agents may have lexicographic preferences over futures they would like to avoid, so as to consider some futures as just undesirable, but others as catastrophic. If an agent expects some of the relevant futures at a bifurcation point of a global system to be catastrophic in this sense, they are faced with a systemic risk.