On the use of conditional age at length data as a likelihood component in integrated population dynamics models
On the use of conditional age at length data as a likelihood component in integrated population dynamics models
复制标题
关于使用条件年龄详细数据作为综合人口动态模型中的可能性成分
DOI：
10.1016/j.fishres.2019.04.007
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Ian G Taylor and Toshihide Kitakado
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hui-Hua Lee; Kevin R Piner;Ian G Taylor and Toshihide Kitakado
综合人口动态模型使用各种数据类型，所有使用的数据都会影响建模过程和估计的动态。被视为条件年龄长度 (CAAL) 数据的成对年龄长度数据越来越多地用作种群评估模型中的数据组件。使用 CAAL 数据的最初目的是直接估计年龄身长过程，包括年龄身长的相关变异性。然而，我们表明，引入不代表人口年龄结构的 CAAL 数据不仅会导致增长估计出现偏差和不精确，而且还会导致动态和管理数量估计出现偏差和不精确。估计适当的基于年龄的观察建模过程可以提高模型性能。我们还表明，即使在具有错误指定的基于年龄的系统建模过程（自然死亡率和随时间变化的增长）的模型中使用代表性 CAAL 数据，也可能导致增长、动态和管理数量方面的偏差和不精确。在这些情况下，对基于年龄的观察建模过程的估计放大了偏差和不精确性。需要更多地考虑此类数据。
Integrated population dynamics models use a variety of data types, and all the data used impact modeled processes and estimated dynamics. Paired age-length data treated as conditional age-at-length (CAAL) data are increasingly being used as a data component in stock assessment models. The original intent of the use of CAAL data was to directly estimate the length-at-age process, including the associated variability in length-at-age. However, we show that introduction of CAAL data that are not representative of the age-structure of the population can cause bias and imprecision in estimates of not only growth, but also dynamics and management quantities. Estimation of an appropriate age-based observations-modeled process may improve model performance. We also show that even the use of representative CAAL data in a model with misspecified age-based systems-modeled processes (natural mortality and time-varying growth) can lead to bias and imprecision in growth, dynamics, and management quantities. In these cases, estimation of an age-based observations-modeled process magnified the bias and imprecision. Greater consideration of this type of data is needed.