SIMULATING RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS
SIMULATING RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS
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DOI：
10.1109/wsc.2018.8632203
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发表时间：
2018-12
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通讯作者：
S. Thorve;S. Swarup;A. Marathe;Youngyun Chungbaek;E. Nordberg;M. Marathe
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作者：
S. Thorve;S. Swarup;A. Marathe;Youngyun Chungbaek;E. Nordberg;M. Marathe
家庭层面的住宅能源需求动态可以通过家庭的人口、行为和物理特征来研究。在本文中，我们开发了一个基于主体的模型，使用自下而上的方法在家庭层面按小时间隔建立分解的能源需求估计。通过使用美国弗吉尼亚州城市和农村地区的综合人口，可以进行家庭水平的分析。能源消耗估算是基于住户的人口统计、他们的行为和活动、能源相关活动中使用的电器的评级、空间调节燃料、家庭的物理特性和天气条件。然后使用动态时间翘曲与弗吉尼亚州Rappahannock县的实际需求曲线验证模拟结果。仿真结果表明，该模型能得到较为真实的能源需求曲线。
Residential energy demand dynamics at household level can be studied through demographic, behavioral and physical characteristics of the household. In this paper, we develop an agent-based model using a bottom-up approach to build disaggregated energy demand estimates at the household level at an hourly interval. A household level analysis is made possible via the use of synthetic populations for the urban and rural areas of Virginia, USA. The energy consumption estimate is based on householders’ demographics, their behaviors and activities, ratings of appliances used in energy-related activities, space conditioning fuels, physical characteristics of the home, and weather conditions. Results from the simulation are then validated with actual demand curves from Rappahannock county in Virginia using dynamic time warping. The simulation results show that the model produces realistic energy demand profiles.