CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey
CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey
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DOI：
10.1016/j.rser.2010.07.005
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发表时间：
2010-12
影响因子：
15.9
通讯作者：
I. Ozturk;Ali Acaravci
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Ozturk;Ali Acaravci
本文采用协整的自回归分布滞后边界检验方法，考察了土耳其经济增长、碳排放、能源消费和就业率之间的长期因果关系。土耳其在1968年至2005年期间的实证结果表明，土耳其在5%的显着性水平的变量之间的长期关系的证据。人均碳排放的收入弹性估计为-0.606，人均能源消费的收入弹性为1.375。对格兰杰因果关系存在性和方向性的研究表明，短期内人均碳排放量和人均能源消费量都不会影响真实的人均GDP，但就业率会影响真实的人均GDP。此外，在因果框架下使用线性对数模型的EKC假设在土耳其的情况下是无效的。总体结果表明，能源节约政策，如定量能源消费和控制二氧化碳排放，可能不会对土耳其的真实的产出增长产生不利影响。
This paper examines the long run and causal relationship issues between economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption and employment ratio in Turkey by using autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1968–2005 suggest an evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables at 5% significance level in Turkey. The estimated income elasticity of carbon emissions per capita is −0.606 and the income elasticity of energy consumption per capita is 1.375. Results for the existence and direction of Granger causality show that neither carbon emissions per capita nor energy consumption per capita cause real GDP per capita, but employment ratio causes real GDP per capita in the short run. In addition, EKC hypothesis at causal framework by using a linear logarithmic model is not valid in Turkish case. The overall results indicates that energy conservation policies, such as rationing energy consumption and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, are likely to have no adverse effect on the real output growth of Turkey.