Global change and the boreal forest: Thresholds, shifting states or gradual change?
Global change and the boreal forest: Thresholds, shifting states or gradual change?
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DOI：
10.1639/0044-7447(2004)033
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发表时间：
2004-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Zimov, SA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chapin, FS;Callaghan, TV;Zimov, SA
预计到21（st）世纪的北方气候变化总是会引起植被变化，这种变化大到足以对社会产生重要影响。然而，植被变化的速度和模式很难预测。我们回顾的证据表明，这些植被变化可能是渐进的北方森林限制或种子传播限制物种分布。然而，在一个物种分布区的中心部分，森林的组成可能对气候变化具有相当大的适应力，直到超过某个阈值。在这一点上，变化可能是迅速和意外的，往往导致切换到非常不同的生态系统类型。这些变化的触发因素中有许多是可以管理的，这表明我们在未来几十年中选择的政策将对当前气候变化的生态和社会后果产生重大影响。
Changes in boreal climate of the magnitude projected for the 21(st) century have always caused vegetation changes large enough to be societally important. However, the rates and patterns of vegetation change are difficult to predict. We review evidence suggesting that these vegetation changes may be gradual at the northern forest limit or where seed dispersal limits species distribution. However, forest composition may be quite resilient to climate change in the central portions of a species range until some threshold is surpassed. At this point, changes can be rapid and unexpected, often causing a switch to very different ecosystem types. Many of these triggers for change are amenable to management, suggesting that our choice of policies in the coming decades will substantially influence the ecological and societal consequences of current climatic change.