Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8
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发表时间：
2013-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Wehner, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kharin, V. V.;Zwiers, F. W.;Wehner, M.
在参与耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）的一组气候模式中，对20年一遇的温度和降水极值及其未来预估变化进行了评估，这是对基于CMIP3集合的一项类似研究的更新。针对三种辐射强迫情景记录了预估的变化。CMIP5模式在模拟20年一遇的温度和降水极值方面的表现与CMIP3集合相当。与再分析的估计值相比，这些模式对20世纪后期的暖极值模拟得相当好。在模拟冷极值方面，模式的差异通常比模拟暖极值时更大。20世纪后期的模拟降水极值在温带地区是合理的，但在热带和亚热带地区，无论是在模式中还是在受观测约束的数据集中，极端降水的不确定性仍然非常大。与CMIP3的结果一致，CMIP5的冷极值通常比暖极值升温更快，主要是在随着全球变暖积雪和海冰消退的地区。在一些热带和亚热带地区，暖极值的升温速率超过了冷极值。降水极值强度的相对变化通常超过年平均降水的相对变化。除了少数亚热带地区外，几乎所有地区20世纪后期极端降水事件的相应重现期都缩短了。CMIP5中极端降水的行星敏感度约为每摄氏度6%，在温带陆地地区通常数值更低。
Twenty-year temperature and precipitation extremes and their projected future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), updating a similar study based on the CMIP3 ensemble. The projected changes are documented for three radiative forcing scenarios. The performance of the CMIP5 models in simulating 20-year temperature and precipitation extremes is comparable to that of the CMIP3 ensemble. The models simulate late 20th century warm extremes reasonably well, compared to estimates from reanalyses. The model discrepancies in simulating cold extremes are generally larger than those for warm extremes. Simulated late 20th century precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics but uncertainty in extreme precipitation in the tropics and subtropics remains very large, both in the models and the observationally-constrained datasets. Consistent with CMIP3 results, CMIP5 cold extremes generally warm faster than warm extremes, mainly in regions where snow and sea-ice retreat with global warming. There are tropical and subtropical regions where warming rates of warm extremes exceed those of cold extremes. Relative changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes generally exceed relative changes in annual mean precipitation. The corresponding waiting times for late 20th century extreme precipitation events are reduced almost everywhere, except for a few subtropical regions. The CMIP5 planetary sensitivity in extreme precipitation is about 6%/degrees C, with generally lower values over extratropical land.