Mediterranean rainfall changes and their causes
Mediterranean rainfall changes and their causes
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地中海降雨变化及其原因
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Menzel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Grassl;P.;Hupfer;L. Menzel
根据CRU(Norwich)格网每月降雨量数据的修订版，按季节尺度计算了1951-2000年期间地中海降水的趋势。最重要的特征是冬半年降雨量普遍减少，这与典型相关分析确定的大气环流模式的特殊变化有关：1980年代以来转向与北大西洋涛动有关的地中海涛动的首选正模，1980年代末以来地中海中部海槽减弱，1970年代以来的模式变化意味着地中海地区气压增加。21世纪末加强温室条件的统计降尺度评估表明，地中海西部和北部地区的降雨量在冬季高峰期增加，春季和秋季减少，但南部和东部地区的降雨量在整个雨期主要为负变化。
Based on a revised version of the CRU (Norwich) gridded monthly rainfall data, trends in Mediterranean precipitation for the 1951–2000 period are calculated on a seasonal scale. The most important characteristic is the widespread rainfall decrease during the winter half-year which is linked to particular changes in atmospheric circulation patterns identified by canonical correlation analyses: a shift to preferred positive modes of the NAO-linked Mediterranean Oscillation since the 1980s, a weakening of the central Mediterranean trough since the late 1980s, and a modal change since the 1970s implying increased pressure in the Mediterranean area. Statistical downscaling assessments for enhanced greenhouse conditions at the end of the 21 st century indicate some further developments: rainfall increases in high winter and decreases in spring and autumn for western and northern Mediterranean regions, but mainly negative changes throughout the rainy period for southern and eastern regions.