Early Engagement of Stakeholders with Individual-Based Modeling Can Inform Research for Improving Invasive Species Management: The Round Goby as a Case Study
Early Engagement of Stakeholders with Individual-Based Modeling Can Inform Research for Improving Invasive Species Management: The Round Goby as a Case Study
复制标题
DOI：
10.3389/fevo.2017.00149
复制
发表时间：
2017-11
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
E. Samson;P. Hirsch;S. Palmer;J. Behrens;T. Brodin;J. Travis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Samson;P. Hirsch;S. Palmer;J. Behrens;T. Brodin;J. Travis
基于个体的模型（IBMs）结合了扩散等关键范围前沿过程的现实表示，可用作研究入侵物种动态的工具。管理人员可以应用这些模型的见解，采取有效行动，防止进一步传播，并优先采取措施，防止入侵物种的建立。我们在这里强调如何早期IBM（在时间和数据可用性的限制下构建）也可以发挥重要作用，在定义关键的研究重点，提供关键信息的生物学的入侵物种，以便后续模型可以提供强大的洞察潜在的管理干预措施。一种名为Neogobius melanostomus的圆虾虎鱼目前正在波罗的海蔓延，据报道，它的入侵带来了重大的负面影响。与利益相关者一起，我们参数化IBM调查虾虎鱼的潜在传播模式在整个格但斯克湾和波罗的海。通过整合通过利益攸关方互动获得的信息、从科学文献中获得的信息，或在无法获得时使用逆向建模方法估计的信息，来分配模型参数。IBM可以为入侵物种的研究提供有价值的方向，即使在数据和/或时间有限的情况下，也可以将它们参数化/拟合到我们在理想世界中所期望的程度。与利益相关者共同开发模型，可以用来识别重要的入侵模式，除了识别和估计未知的环境参数，从而指导未来的研究方向。在建模周期的早期阶段不需要参数化良好和经过验证的模型，因为它们的主要用途是作为思考的工具。
Individual-based models (IBMs) incorporating realistic representations of key range-front processes such as dispersal can be used as tools to investigate the dynamics of invasive species. Managers can apply insights from these models to take effective action to prevent further spread and prioritize measures preventing establishment of invasive species. We highlight here how early-stage IBMs (constructed under constraints of time and data availability) can also play an important role in defining key research priorities for providing key information on the biology of an invasive species in order that subsequent models can provide robust insight into potential management interventions. The round goby, Neogobius melanostomus, is currently spreading through the Baltic Sea, with major negative effects being reported in the wake of its invasion. Together with stakeholders, we parameterize an IBM to investigate the goby’s potential spread pattern throughout the Gulf of Gdansk and the Baltic Sea. Model parameters were assigned by integrating information obtained through stakeholder interaction, from scientific literature, or estimated using an inverse modelling approach when not available. IBMs can provide valuable direction to research on invasive species even when there is limited data and/or time available to parameterize/fit them to the degree to which we might aspire in an ideal world. Co-development of models with stakeholders can be used to recognize important invasion patterns, in addition to identifying and estimating unknown environmental parameters, thereby guiding the direction of future research. Well-parameterized and validated models are not required in the earlier stages of the modelling cycle where their main utility is as a tool for thought.