A Confidence Region Approach to Tuning for Variable Selection.

A Confidence Region Approach to Tuning for Variable Selection.
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DOI:
10.1080/10618600.2012.679890
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发表时间:
2012
期刊:
Journal of computational and graphical statistics : a joint publication of American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Interface Foundation of North America
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Bondell HD
Bondell HD
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Gunes F;Bondell HD

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我们开发了一种调整惩罚回归变量选择方法的方法,通过计算包含在指定水平的置信区域中的稀疏估计。由于置信区间/区域是普遍理解的,因此以这种方式调整惩罚回归方法是直观的,并且更容易被科学家和从业者理解。更重要的是,我们的工作表明,调整到一个固定的置信水平往往比通过基于AIC,BIC或交叉验证(CV)在广泛的样本量和稀疏水平的常见方法进行调整更好。此外,我们证明,通过调整一个序列的置信水平收敛到一个,渐近选择一致性,并与一个简单的两阶段的过程中,实现了预言性质。基于置信区域的调谐参数使用来自现有惩罚回归计算机包的输出容易地计算。我们的工作还展示了如何将任何惩罚参数映射到相应的置信系数。这种映射有助于比较调整参数选择方法,如AIC,BIC和CV,并揭示了所得到的调整参数对应的置信水平是非常低的,可以在不同的数据集有很大的差异。这篇文章的补充材料可在网上查阅。
We develop an approach to tuning of penalized regression variable selection methods by calculating the sparsest estimator contained in a confidence region of a specified level. Because confidence intervals/regions are generally understood, tuning penalized regression methods in this way is intuitive and more easily understood by scientists and practitioners. More importantly, our work shows that tuning to a fixed confidence level often performs better than tuning via the common methods based on AIC, BIC, or cross-validation (CV) over a wide range of sample sizes and levels of sparsity. Additionally, we prove that by tuning with a sequence of confidence levels converging to one, asymptotic selection consistency is obtained; and with a simple two-stage procedure, an oracle property is achieved. The confidence region based tuning parameter is easily calculated using output from existing penalized regression computer packages. Our work also shows how to map any penalty parameter to a corresponding confidence coefficient. This mapping facilitates comparisons of tuning parameter selection methods such as AIC, BIC and CV, and reveals that the resulting tuning parameters correspond to confidence levels that are extremely low, and can vary greatly across data sets. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.
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