A two-stage theory of carcinogenesis in relation to the age distribution of human cancer.
A two-stage theory of carcinogenesis in relation to the age distribution of human cancer.
复制标题
与人类癌的年龄分布有关的两阶段的致癌理论。
DOI：
10.1038/bjc.1957.22
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发表时间：
1957-06
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
DOLL, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ARMITAGE, P;DOLL, R
在广泛的年龄范围内，各种类型的人类癌症的死亡率大约与年龄的高倍率成正比，Muller (1951)、Nordling (1953) 和 Stocks (1953) 独立地提出，如果癌症的发展是一系列离散细胞变化的最终结果（例如，体细胞突变所产生的变化），则可以解释这一点。在之前的一篇论文中，我们通过分别检查年龄与癌症死亡率之间的关系来检验这一假设。男性和女性的几个不同部位（Armitage 和 Doll，1954）。因此，我们得出的结论是，如果癌变是一个包含六七个阶段的复杂过程，并且暴露于导致从一个阶段到另一个阶段变化的因素的程度随着年龄或一年到另一年的变化而变化，那么人类癌症的其他几个主要流行病学特征也可以解释。特别是，该假设可以解释：（1）在不同部位观察到的死亡率与年龄相关的曲线形状之间的差异；（2）在接触致癌物后观察到肿瘤形成之前的较长潜伏期；
OVER a wide range of ages, the mortality from various types of human cancer rises approximately in proportion to a high power of the age, and Muller (1951), Nordling (1953) and Stocks (1953) have independently suggested that this could be accounted for if the development of cancer were the end-result of a series of discrete cellular changes-such, for example, as would be produced by somatic mutations.In a previous paper we tested the hypothesis by examining separately the relationship betweenage and mortality for cancer of several different sites in men and in women (Armitage and Doll, 1954). As a result, we concluded that several of the other principal epidemiological characteristics of human cancer could also be accounted for if carcinogenesis were a complex process of six or seven stages and the degree ofexposure to the factors inducing the changes from one stage to another varied, either with age or from one year to another. In particular, the hypothesis could account for:(1) The differences between the shapes of the curves relating mnortality to age, observed fordifferent sites;(2) the long latent period observed after exposure to a carcinogen before a tumour develops;