Liberal trade policy and food insecurity across the income distribution: an observational analysis in 132 countries, 2014-17.
Liberal trade policy and food insecurity across the income distribution: an observational analysis in 132 countries, 2014-17.
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DOI：
10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30263-1
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Reeves, Aaron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barlow, Pepita;Loopstra, Rachel;Reeves, Aaron
背景：消除粮食不安全对于实现全球卫生目标是必要的。自由贸易政策可能会增加粮食供应，但这些政策如何影响个人层面的粮食不安全仍不确定。我们的目标是在个人层面上评估自由贸易政策与粮食不安全之间的联系，以及这种联系是否在国家收入和家庭收入群体之间存在差异。方法：在这一观察性分析中，我们结合了联合国粮食及农业组织的个人层面的数据和瑞士经济研究所的国家层面的贸易政策指数。我们使用回归模型和算法加权程序检验了一个国家的贸易政策得分与个人报告中度-严重或严重粮食不安全的可能性之间的关联。我们控制了多个协变量，包括国内生产总值、民主化水平和人口规模。此外，我们按国家和家庭收入检验了异质性。结果：我们的样本包括2014年至2017年期间132个国家和地区的460名 102人。在协变量调整后，自由贸易政策与中-重度或严重的粮食不安全没有显著关联。然而，在高收入国家中，收入高于每人每年25 430美元(按购买力平价调整)的家庭，贸易政策指数(更自由)的单位增加对应于报告中度至严重粮食不安全的预测概率降低0.07%(95%CI-0.10至-0.04)。在收入最低的家庭中(
BACKGROUND: Eradicating food insecurity is necessary for achieving global health goals. Liberal trade policies might increase food supplies but how these policies influence individual-level food insecurity remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the association between liberal trade policies and food insecurity at the individual level, and whether this association varies across country-income and household-income groups.METHODS: For this observational analysis, we combined individual-level data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN with a country-level trade policy index from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Swiss Economic Institute. We examined the association between a country's trade policy score and the probability of individuals reporting moderate-severe or severe food insecurity using regression models and algorithmic weighting procedures. We controlled for multiple covariates, including gross domestic product, democratisation level, and population size. Additionally, we examined heterogeneity by country and household income.RESULTS: Our sample comprised 460 102 individuals in 132 countries for the period of 2014-17. Liberal trade policy was not significantly associated with moderate-severe or severe food insecurity after covariate adjustment. However, among households in high-income countries with incomes higher than US$25 430 per person per year (adjusted for purchasing power parity), a unit increase in the trade policy index (more liberal) corresponded to a 0·07% (95% CI -0·10 to -0·04) reduction in the predicted probability of reporting moderate-severe food insecurity. Among households in the lowest income decile (