Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems
Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems
复制标题
预测准线性中尺度对流系统的维持
DOI：
10.1175/waf1006.1
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
S. Corfidi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Coniglio;H. Brooks;S. Weiss;S. Corfidi
摘要 通过对观测到的邻近探测的检查来研究预测中尺度对流系统（MCS）维持的问题。此外，成熟和衰弱的 MCS 之间存在统计差异的环境变量被输入到逻辑回归程序中，以开发 MCS 维护的概率指导，重点关注持续数小时的暖季准线性系统。在成熟和弱化的 MCS 之间，非常深层的剪切矢量幅度是数百个运动学和热力学变量中最好的区分器。对剪切剖面的分析表明，垂直于 MCS 运动（通常平行于引导线）的剪切分量解释了低层中的大部分差异，而平行于 MCS 运动的剪切分量解释了中高层中的大部分差异。对流云层很大一部分的递减率、对流可用潜力...
Abstract The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different between mature and weakening MCSs are input into a logistic regression procedure to develop probabilistic guidance on MCS maintenance, focusing on warm-season quasi-linear systems that persist for several hours. Between the mature and weakening MCSs, shear vector magnitudes over very deep layers are the best discriminators among hundreds of kinematic and thermodynamic variables. An analysis of the shear profiles reveals that the shear component perpendicular to MCS motion (usually parallel to the leading line) accounts for much of this difference in low levels and the shear component parallel to MCS motion accounts for much of this difference in mid- to upper levels. The lapse rates over a significant portion of the convective cloud layer, the convective available potential en...