Current changes in tropical precipitation
Current changes in tropical precipitation
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205
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发表时间：
2010-04-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Good, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allan, Richard P.;Soden, Brian J.;Good, Peter
评估了来自卫星数据和气候模型的热带降水的当前变化。热带潮湿和干燥地区被定义为月降水量最高的30%和最低的70%。根据全球降水气候学项目(GPCP)在包括特殊传感器微波成像仪(SSM/I)数据(1988-2008年)在内的这段时期内在湿区(1.8%/十年)和干旱地区(-2.6%/十年)观测到的热带海洋趋势，据信GPCP比纳入整个时间序列(1979-2008年)时规模更小，比以前的比较更接近模型模拟。利用湿区内的逐日资料分析极端降水的变化，发现SSM/I观测和模式集合平均的最大6%的增温事件的频率增加。SSM/I数据表明，随着变暖，最严重事件的发生频率增加，比预期的Clausius-Clapeyron标度大几倍，处于模式模拟中反应范围的上限。
Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (-2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988-2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979-2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.