THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS IN GROWTH
THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS IN GROWTH
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-d
复制
发表时间：
1993-12-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
FISCHER, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
FISCHER, S
我使用增长核算的回归模拟，提出了横截面和面板回归，表明增长与通货膨胀、巨额预算赤字和扭曲的外汇市场呈负相关。补充证据表明，宏观经济政策与增长之间存在因果关系。该框架使得确定这些影响的渠道成为可能：通货膨胀通过减少投资和生产率增长来降低增长；预算赤字还会降低资本积累和生产率增长。对特殊情况的研究表明，尽管低通胀和小赤字对于长期高增长来说并不是必要的，但高通胀与持续增长并不相符。
Using a regression analog of growth accounting, I present cross-sectional and panel regressions showing that growth is negatively associated with inflation, large budget deficits, and distorted foreign exchange markets. Supplementary evidence suggests that the causation runs from macroeconomic policy to growth. The framework makes it possible to identify the channels of these effects: inflation reduces growth by reducing investment and productivity growth; budget deficits also reduce both capital accumulation and productivity growth. Examination of exceptional cases shows that while low inflation and small deficits are not necessary for high growth even over long periods, high inflation is not consistent with sustained growth.