The fading American dream: Trends in absolute income mobility since 1940
The fading American dream: Trends in absolute income mobility since 1940
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aal4617
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发表时间：
2017-04-28
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Narang, Jimmy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chetty, Raj;Grusky, David;Narang, Jimmy
我们通过结合美国人口普查和当前人口调查的横截面数据以及来自去识别税务记录的面板数据，估计了“绝对收入流动性”的比率-收入超过父母的儿童比例。我们发现，绝对流动率从1940年出生的儿童的约90%下降到20世纪80年代出生的儿童的50%。仅仅提高国内生产总值增长率并不能使绝对流动性恢复到1940年代出生的儿童所经历的水平。然而，如果像1940年出生的人群那样，将当前的GDP增长更平等地分配给各个收入群体，将扭转70%以上的流动性下降趋势。这些结果意味着，重振绝对流动性高的“美国梦”需要在收入分配中更广泛地分享经济增长。
We estimated rates of "absolute income mobility"-the fraction of children who earn more than their parents-by combining data from U.S. Census and Current Population Survey cross sections with panel data from de-identified tax records. We found that rates of absolute mobility have fallen from approximately 90% for children born in 1940 to 50% for children born in the 1980s. Increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates alone cannot restore absolute mobility to the rates experienced by children born in the 1940s. However, distributing current GDP growth more equally across income groups as in the 1940 birth cohort would reverse more than 70% of the decline in mobility. These results imply that reviving the "American dream" of high rates of absolute mobility would require economic growth that is shared more broadly across the income distribution.