Influence of climate change on the abundance, distribution and phenology of woodland bird species in temperate regions
Influence of climate change on the abundance, distribution and phenology of woodland bird species in temperate regions
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1474-919x.2007.00729.x
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发表时间：
2007-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Crick, H. Q. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leech, D. I.;Crick, H. Q. P.
现在有压倒性的证据表明，自1900年以来，地球大气中温室气体浓度的增加已导致全球气温上升0.6摄氏度，预计下个世纪将进一步上升1.4至5.8摄氏度。气候条件的变化已经影响了广泛的动植物分类群的人口、物候和分布。这篇综述着重于气候变化对西部古北区温带林地鸟类繁殖的已观察到的和潜在的影响，其中很大一部分目前正在下降。环境温度和降水模式的变化可能会对鸟类的存活率和生产力产生直接和间接的影响，从而影响种群规模。对于一些物种或种群，产卵和从越冬地返回等活动的时间也随着繁殖季节食物供应高峰期的变化而变化。不同个体能够跟踪这些时间变化的程度将对未来的种群规模和分布产生重大影响。除非采取积极的管理措施，否则树种相对较低的分散率可能会导致某些林地生境类型的总面积减少，因为范围南缘的丧失可能比北缘的扩张发生得快得多。此外，许多林地鸟类本身的分散率很低，如果目前占据的区域变得不适合，这可能会影响它们迁移到新的栖息地的能力。因此，林地鸟类可能特别容易受到气候变化的影响。
There is now overwhelming evidence that an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere has caused global temperatures to increase by 0.6 degrees C since 1900 and further increases of between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees C are predicted over the next century. Changes in climatic conditions have already influenced the demography, phenology and distribution of a wide range of plant and animal taxa. This review focuses on the impacts, both observed and potential, of climate change on birds breeding in temperate woodlands of the Western Palaearctic, a significant proportion of which are currently declining. Changes in ambient temperatures and patterns of precipitation may have direct and indirect effects on the survival rates and productivity of bird species, thus influencing population sizes. For some species or populations, the timing of events such as egg-laying and return from the wintering grounds is also changing in relation to shifts in the peak of food availability during the breeding season. The degree to which different individuals are able to track these temporal changes will have a significant bearing on population sizes and distributions in the future. Unless active management steps are taken, the relatively low dispersal rates of tree species may lead to a decrease in the total area of some woodland habitat types as losses at the southern edge of the range are likely to occur much more quickly than expansion at the northern edge. In addition, the dispersal rates of many woodland birds are themselves low, which could affect their ability to move to new habitat patches if currently occupied areas become unsuitable. Thus, woodland birds may be particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.