Perceived environmental risks and insecurity reduce future migration intentions in hazardous migration source areas
Perceived environmental risks and insecurity reduce future migration intentions in hazardous migration source areas
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.oneear.2020.12.009
复制
发表时间：
2021-01-22
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Abu, Mumuni
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adger, William Neil;de Campos, Ricardo Safra;Abu, Mumuni
环境变化在不同的时间和空间尺度上影响人口流动。然而，移民的个人决定涉及多种动机，包括感知到的环境风险和经济机会。我们分析了环境风险的感知如何影响移民决策和未来的移民意图。我们使用了横断面家庭调查数据（N = 5450），这些数据来自加纳、孟加拉国和印度四个沿海地区净外迁地区的移民人口，以检验移民后动机和前后移民意图。这些数据包括以往移徙、移徙意图、福祉、粮食不安全以及感知到的长期环境退化等变量。结果表明，很少有家庭认为环境风险是过去移民决策的主要驱动因素。人们认为日益严重的干旱和家庭不安全都降低了未来移民的意向。因此，对环境风险的认识，包括对未来潜在变化的认识，对于改变低洼沿海地区来源区的总移民流量具有重要意义。
Environmental change influences population movements at various temporal and spatial scales. Yet individual decisions to migrate involve multiple motivations including perceived environmental risks and economic opportunities. We analyze how perceptions of environmental risks affect migration decisions and future migration intentions. We use cross-sectional household survey data (N = 5,450) from populations engaged in migration in net out-migration areas in four coastal areas in Ghana, Bangladesh, and India to examine ex post-migration motivations and ex ante-future migration intentions. The data include variables on previous migration, migration intentions, well-being, food insecurity, and perceived long-term environmental degradation. The results show that few households identified environmental risks as the primary driver for past migration decisions. Perceived increased severity of drought and household insecurity both reduce stated future migration intentions. Hence, perceptions of environmental risks, including future potential changes, are significant in altering aggregate migration flows from source areas in low-lying coastal regions.