IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2017 and projections for 2045
IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2017 and projections for 2045
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DOI：
10.1016/j.diabres.2018.02.023
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Malanda, B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cho, N. H.;Shaw, J. E.;Malanda, B.
简介：自2000年以来，国际糖尿病基金会一直在国家、区域和全球范围内测量糖尿病的患病率。目的：估计2017年全球糖尿病负担及其影响，并预测2045年。方法：进行了系统的文献综述，以确定已发表的关于糖尿病患病率的研究，1990年至2016年期间，妊娠期葡萄糖耐量受损和高脂血症。为每个国家选择了关于糖尿病流行率的最高质量研究。使用逻辑回归模型生成每个国家的特定年龄流行率估计值。结果：据估计，在2017年，全球有4.51亿（18-99岁）糖尿病患者。预计到2045年，这些数字将增加到6.93亿。据估计，几乎一半的糖尿病患者（49.7%）未被诊断。此外，估计有3.74亿人患有葡萄糖耐量受损，据预测，近2 130万活产妇女在怀孕期间受到某种形式的高血糖症的影响。2017年，全球约有500万人死于20-99岁年龄段的糖尿病。2017年全球糖尿病患者的医疗支出估计为8500亿美元。结论：糖尿病患病率、糖尿病死亡率和糖尿病医疗支出的新估计值给全球带来了巨大的社会、财政和卫生系统负担。(C)2018爱思唯尔B. V.保留所有权利。
Introduction: Since the year 2000, IDF has been measuring the prevalence of diabetes nationally, regionally and globally.Aim: To produce estimates of the global burden of diabetes and its impact for 2017 and projections for 2045.Methods: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify published studies on the prevalence of diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance and hyperglycaemia in pregnancy in the period from 1990 to 2016. The highest quality studies on diabetes prevalence were selected for each country. A logistic regression model was used to generate age-specific prevalence estimates or each country. Estimates for countries without data were extrapolated from similar countries.Results: It was estimated that in 2017 there are 451 million (age 18-99 years) people with diabetes worldwide. These figures were expected to increase to 693 million) by 2045. It was estimated that almost half of all people (49.7%) living with diabetes are undiagnosed. Moreover, there was an estimated 374 million people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and it was projected that almost 21.3 million live births to women were affected by some form of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. In 2017, approximately 5 million deaths worldwide were attributable to diabetes in the 20-99 years age range. The global healthcare expenditure on people with diabetes was estimated to be USD 850 billion in 2017.Conclusion: The new estimates of diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes and healthcare expenditure due to diabetes present a large social, financial and health system burden across the world. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.