Migration as a human affair: Integrating individual stress thresholds into quantitative models of climate migration
Migration as a human affair: Integrating individual stress thresholds into quantitative models of climate migration
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2018.10.015
复制
发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Kay, Susan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adams, Helen;Kay, Susan
海平面上升将使数百万人面临日益严重的沿海灾害并最终导致土地损失。因此，重要的是要了解随着暴露程度的增加，居民将如何决定是否以及何时搬走。从历史上看，环境变化下移民的定量模型一直缺失人类决策的非物质维度。在这里，我们使用行为迁移理论和固有流动潜力的概念来定义个人压力阈值，以流动潜力和居住满意度之间的紧张关系为代表。我们进一步认为，移民作为一种结果是由移民的心理倾向决定的，资本水平的作用是调节而不是决定移民反应、其时机和结果。我们以孟加拉国西南海岸为案例研究，利用 1500 个家庭社会调查的结果量化这些特征，并根据物理模型得出的海面高度预测定义暴露指数。将数据汇总到村庄一级，我们能够确定特定地点的流动响应；例如，高流动性特征与高暴露程度相关的地点，因此可能会更早地发生移民，以应对日益增加的沿海灾害。通过推进关于个体阈值的理论并证明可以有效地量化复杂的人类特征，我们进一步提高了将这些特征纳入建模方法的能力。实证结果有助于关于气候变化下的不动性的辩论，以及制定最适当的适应性应对措施以保护气候脆弱人群的多维福祉的决策。
Sea level rise will expose millions of people to increasing coastal hazards and eventual land loss. Thus, it is important to understand how residents will make decisions about whether and when to move away with increasing exposure. Historically, non-material dimensions of human decision-making have been missing from quantitative modelling of migration under environmental change. Here, we use behavioural migration theory and the concept of an inherent mobility potential to define individual stress thresholds, represented in the tension between mobility potential and residential satisfaction. We further suggest that migration as an outcome is determined by psychological propensity to move, and that levels of capital act to modulate, rather than determine, migration responses, their timing and outcome. Using the southwest coast of Bangladesh as our case study, we quantify these characteristics using the results of a 1500 household social survey and define an exposure index based on projections of sea surface height drawn from a physical model. Aggregating data to the village level, we are able to identify place-specific mobility responses; for example, locations where high mobility characteristics are associated with high exposure and thus migration may occur earlier in response to increasing coastal hazard. By advancing theory on individual thresholds and demonstrating that complex human characteristics can be usefully quantified, we further the ability of such characteristics to be included in modelling approaches. The empirical results contribute to debates on immobility under climate change, and decision-making on the most appropriate adaptive responses to protect multi-dimensional well-being of climate-vulnerable people.