Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps
Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps
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预期驱动的流动性陷阱下的最优通胀目标
DOI：
10.17016/feds.2019.036
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Philip Coyle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Philip Coyle
在预期驱动的流动性陷阱中，较高的通胀目标与较低的通胀和消费相关。因此，将预期驱动的流动性陷阱的可能性引入标准模型会降低最优通胀目标。使用校准的新凯恩斯主义模型与名义利率的有效下限（ELB）的约束，我们发现，即使是非常小的概率落入预期驱动的流动性陷阱降低最优通胀目标的非平凡。我们的分析提供了一个理由，让我们对央行应该在触及ELB的可能性更高的情况下提高通胀目标的观点保持谨慎。
In expectations-driven liquidity traps, a higher inflation target is associated with lower inflation and consumption. As a result, introducing the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps to an otherwise standard model lowers the optimal inflation target. Using a calibrated New Keynesian model with an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates, we find that even a very small probability of falling into an expectations-driven liquidity trap lowers the optimal inflation target nontrivially. Our analysis provides a reason to be cautious about the argument that central banks should raise their inflation targets in light of a higher likelihood of hitting the ELB.