The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course
The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2009.0153
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发表时间：
2010-02-06
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Wallinga, Jacco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi;Chowell, Gerardo;Wallinga, Jacco
传染病的报告间隔往往被确定为日历中的时间单位，而不考虑疾病的流行病学特征。尚未提出选择传染病报告间隔的指南。本研究旨在将粗略报告的流行病数据转化为繁殖数，并明确理想的报告间隔，以提供对流行病时间进程的详细了解。我们简要回顾了克莱尔·奥斯瓦尔德·斯塔利布拉斯 (Clare Oswald Stallybrass) 提出的分散率，即连续报告间隔内的病例比率，以发现历史研究中的技术缺陷。我们推导出这个量的校正表达式，并提出简单的算法来估计有效繁殖数作为时间的函数，将报告间隔调整为疾病的发生时间，并证明流行病的发生时间分布、报告间隔和增长率之间的明确关系。我们的练习表明，理想的报告间隔是平均生成时间，因此连续间隔中的病例比率可以得出繁殖数。当报告每个平均世代时间的观察结果不切实际时，我们还提出了一种替代方法，使我们能够获得适合感染控制实际目的的任何报告间隔的繁殖数的直接估计。
The reporting interval of infectious diseases is often determined as a time unit in the calendar regardless of the epidemiological characteristics of the disease. No guidelines have been proposed to choose the reporting interval of infectious diseases. The present study aims at translating coarsely reported epidemic data into the reproduction number and clarifying the ideal reporting interval to offer detailed insights into the time course of an epidemic. We briefly revisit the dispersibility ratio, i.e. ratio of cases in successive reporting intervals, proposed by Clare Oswald Stallybrass, detecting technical flaws in the historical studies. We derive a corrected expression for this quantity and propose simple algorithms to estimate the effective reproduction number as a function of time, adjusting the reporting interval to the generation time of a disease and demonstrating a clear relationship among the generation-time distribution, reporting interval and growth rate of an epidemic. Our exercise suggests that an ideal reporting interval is the mean generation time, so that the ratio of cases in successive intervals can yield the reproduction number. When it is impractical to report observations every mean generation time, we also present an alternative method that enables us to obtain straightforward estimates of the reproduction number for any reporting interval that suits the practical purpose of infection control.