Fuel demand, road transport pollution emissions and residents' health losses in the transitional China
Fuel demand, road transport pollution emissions and residents' health losses in the transitional China
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转型时期中国的燃料需求、道路交通污染排放和居民健康损失
DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2015.10.019
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
He Ling-Yun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yang Sheng;He Ling-Yun
近年来，中国经济的快速增长导致了严重的空气污染，给经济发展和居民健康造成了重大损失。特别是，公路运输部门被指责为主要排放者之一。在过去的几十年里，国际石油价格的波动对中国的道路运输业产生了重大影响。因此，受Li和Zhou（2005）的启发，我们提出了中国省域经济是独立的“经济实体”的假设。基于这一假设，我们研究了中国道路运输燃料（即，汽油和柴油）需求系统，使用中国除香港、澳门和台湾外的所有31个省份的面板数据。为了将燃料需求系统与大气污染排放联系起来，本文提出了污染排放弹性的概念，并根据实际油价波动情况，通过不同情景下的大气污染浓度和健康损失评估模型，对道路交通部门的大气污染排放和居民健康损失进行了估算。据我们所知，我们的框架，是第一次尝试，以解决在转型期中国的道路运输部门的燃料需求系统和居民的健康损失之间的传导机制。
In recent years, China’s rapid economic growth resulted in serious air pollution, which caused substantial losses to economic development and residents’ health. In particular, the road transport sector has been blamed to be one of the major emitters. During the past decades, fluctuation in the international oil prices has imposed significant impacts on the China’s road transport sector. Therefore, inspired by Li and Zhou (2005), we propose an assumption that China’s provincial economies are independent “economic entities”. Based on this assumption, we investigate the China’s road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the panel data of all 31 Chinese provinces except Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. To connect the fuel demand system and the air pollution emissions, we propose the concept of pollution emissions elasticities to estimate the air pollution emissions from the road transport sector, and residents’ health losses by a simplified approach consisting of air pollution concentrations and health loss assessment models under different scenarios based on real-world oil price fluctuations. Our framework, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to address the transmission mechanism between the fuel demand system in road transport sector and residents’ health losses in the transitional China.