Global urban growth between 1870 and 2100 from integrated high resolution mapped data and urban dynamic modeling
Global urban growth between 1870 and 2100 from integrated high resolution mapped data and urban dynamic modeling
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-021-00273-w
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发表时间：
2021-09-29
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Chen, Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Xuecao;Zhou, Yuyu;Chen, Wei
从长远来看，全球城市范围记录有助于评估人类活动对环境的影响。遥感观测可以提供对历史城市动态的洞察，但仅限于卫星时代。在这里，我们使用经过 1992 年至 2013 年城市范围卫星观测训练的城市元胞自动机模型，开发了 1870 年至 2100 年年度城市动态的 1 公里分辨率全球数据集。对五个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下的后播 (1870-1990) 和预测 (2020-2100) 城市动态进行了建模。我们发现，SSP5（化石燃料发展情景）下的全球城市增长是最大的，自 1870 年以来城市范围增加了 40 倍以上。高分辨率数据集捕获了 200 年来的网格级城市扩张，这可以深入了解城市的城市化生命周期，并有助于评估全球范围内城市化和人类与环境相互作用的长期环境影响。在化石燃料发展共享社会经济的情况下，预计城市扩张和城市化的环境影响最大根据全球高分辨率城市元胞自动机建模的路径。
Long term, global records of urban extent can help evaluate environmental impacts of anthropogenic activities. Remotely sensed observations can provide insights into historical urban dynamics, but only during the satellite era. Here, we develop a 1 km resolution global dataset of annual urban dynamics between 1870 and 2100 using an urban cellular automata model trained on satellite observations of urban extent between 1992 and 2013. Hindcast (1870-1990) and projected (2020-2100) urban dynamics under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were modeled. We find that global urban growth under SSP5, the fossil-fuelled development scenario, was largest with a greater than 40-fold increase in urban extent since 1870. The high resolution dataset captures grid level urban sprawl over 200 years, which can provide insights into the urbanization life cycle of cities and help assess long-term environmental impacts of urbanization and human-environment interactions at a global scale.Projected urban sprawl and environmental impacts of urbanization are greatest under a fossil-fuelled development shared socioeconomic pathway, according to global, high resolution urban cellular automata modelling.