Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters, Public Officials, and Media Broadcasters in Boulder, Colorado
Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters, Public Officials, and Media Broadcasters in Boulder, Colorado
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山洪暴发风险和预警决策：科罗拉多州博尔德市预报员、公职人员和媒体广播员的心理模型研究
作者：
R. Morss;J. Demuth;A. Bostrom;J. Lazo;H. Lazrus
及时的预警沟通和决策对于减少山洪暴发造成的危害至关重要。为了帮助理解和改进极端天气风险沟通与管理，本研究采用心智模型研究方法来调查山洪预警系统及其风险决策背景。研究数据收集于科罗拉多州博尔德地区，通过对预报员、政府官员和媒体广播员进行心智模型访谈（这些人员在预警系统中各自做出重要的相互关联的决策）以及与预报员进行的小组建模会议获得。对数据的分析为建立一个以决策为重点的山洪预警系统模型提供了依据，该模型整合了专业人员的观点。通过该模型对个人和小组数据进行比较分析，描述了这些专业人员如何概念化山洪风险及相关不确定性；如何创建和传播山洪预警信息；以及如何看待预警信息在他们自己和他人决策中的（以及应该如何）使用情况。分析表明，如果专业人员能在其专业领域和工作职责范围内对山洪风险和预警系统形成更清晰、共同的理解，预警系统的运行将会受益。鉴于在针对像山洪这样复杂且快速演变的灾害进行风险沟通和决策时面临诸多挑战，另一个优先事项是制定改进的预警内容，以便在必要时帮助公众进行自我保护。同样重要的是，专业人员要与公众就山洪风险管理责任的分配进行沟通，以及在整个系统范围内改进决策中的不确定性管理。
Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision‐focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals’ perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others’ decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system‐wide management of uncertainty in decisions.