Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012
Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gaceta.2015.01.011
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Mateo Ontañón, Salvador de
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
León-Gómez, Inmaculada;Delgado-Sanz, Concepción;Mateo Ontañón, Salvador de
目的：西班牙每日死亡率监测系统和欧洲公共卫生行动方案监测西班牙2012年2月和3月发现死亡率过高。本文的目的是确定这一过量是否可归因于这一时期的流感。方法：采用西班牙每日死亡率监测系统中的时间序列、欧洲死亡率监测系统中的泊松回归以及流感死亡率估计的FluMOMO模型，对2006 - 2012年所有原因的过量死亡率进行研究。通过对Serfling模型的修改，研究了流感和流感引起的肺炎的超额死亡率。为了检测过量期，我们比较了观察到的死亡率和预期的死亡率。结果：2012年2月和3月，西班牙每日死亡率监测系统和欧洲死亡率监测系统分别检测到8110例和10872例死亡（死亡率（MR）分别为1.22（95% CI:1.21-1.23）和1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31)）。在2011- 2012年流感季节，fluumomo模型确定了64岁以上人群中因流感死亡的最大百分比（97%），相对于与流感相关的死亡总数（13822人死亡）。Serfling模型得出的64岁以上老年人因流感、肺炎和呼吸道疾病造成的超额死亡率在2011-2012年季节也达到峰值：每10万居民分别死亡18.07人和77.20人。结论：2012年冬季，西班牙每日死亡率监测系统和欧洲死亡率监测系统发现西班牙老年人死亡率显著上升，与流感季节较晚，A（H3N2）病毒占优势，西班牙出现寒潮相吻合。这项研究表明，流感可能是导致2012年冬季西班牙观察到的死亡率过高的主要因素之一。(c) 2014年sespas。Elsevier Espana， S.L.U.出版，版权所有。
Objective: An excess of mortality was detected in Spain in February and March 2012 by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health actions program. The objective of this article was to determine whether this excess could be attributed to influenza in this period.Methods: Excess mortality from all causes from 2006 to 2012 were studied using time series in the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system, and Poisson regression in the European mortality surveillance system, as well as the FluMOMO model, which estimates the mortality attributable to influenza. Excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia attributable to influenza were studied by a modification of the Serfling model. To detect the periods of excess, we compared observed and expected mortality.Results: In February and March 2012, both the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European mortality surveillance system detected a mortality excess of 8,110 and 10,872 deaths (mortality ratio (MR): 1.22(95% CI:1.21-1.23) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31), respectively). In the 2011-12 season, the FluMOMO model identified the maximum percentage (97%) of deaths attributable to influenza in people older than 64 years with respect to the mortality total associated with influenza (13,822 deaths). The rate of excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and respiratory causes in people older than 64 years, obtained by the Serfling model, also reached a peak in the 2011-2012 season: 18.07 and 77.20, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively.Conclusion: A significant increase in mortality in elderly people in Spain was detected by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and by the European mortality surveillance system in the winter of 2012, coinciding with a late influenza season, with a predominance of the A(H3N2) virus, and a cold wave in Spain. This study suggests that influenza could have been one of the main factors contributing to the mortality excess observed in the winter of 2012 in Spain. (C) 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L.U. All rights reserved.