Proposing a common platform of shipping cost analysis of the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal Route
Proposing a common platform of shipping cost analysis of the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal Route
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DOI：
10.1057/mel.2014.29
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发表时间：
2015-03
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Masahiko Furuichi;N. Otsuka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Masahiko Furuichi;N. Otsuka
近年来，由于北极海冰的消融，可航期变长，船舶经营者可以利用北方航道较短的航行距离，利用该航道进行的东亚与西北欧之间的海上贸易不断增加。由于全球变暖，北极海冰继续减少，因此，就这类贸易而言，NSR现在比苏伊士运河航线短约40%。2013年，NSR的航运量创下10年来新高，达到136万吨，共71个航次。因此，对通过NSR和替代传统路线（特别是SCR）的估计运输成本进行了比较分析。此外，在以往的研究中，已经提出将“噪音感应强的地方”和“噪音感应强的地方”合并航运，即船舶在较温暖的月份通过“噪音感应强的地方”，而在较寒冷的月份通过“噪音感应强的地方”，作为北极航运的现实情况。正如拉瑟尔所讨论的那样，由于成本估算中使用的假设因研究而异，因此在比较估计的运输成本时仍然存在一些困难。本研究旨在通过澄清和分析现有文献中所载的费用构成，建立一个广泛的费用估算假设的共同平台。此外，还就NSR费用问题非正式地与NSR航运专业人员进行了访谈，因为此类费用通常是根据破冰船护送服务提供商与航运公司之间的谈判确定的。实证分析表明，在东亚和西北欧之间进行NSR/SCR集装箱货物联合运输在商业上是可行的。
Maritime trade between East Asia and Northwest Europe using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has been recently increasing, because ship operators may take advantage of the shorter sailing distance of NSR whose navigable season has become longer because of retreating Arctic sea ice. As Arctic sea ice continues to retreat because of global warming, the NSR is now approximately 40 per cent shorter than the Suez Canal Route (SCR) for such trade. In 2013, shipping on the NSR marked a record 10 year-high volume of 1.36 million tons with 71 voyages. Accordingly, comparative analyses of estimated shipping cost via the NSR and the alternative conventional routes, especially the SCR, have been carried out. Furthermore, NSR/SCR-combined shipping, that is, when a vessel transits the NSR during the warmer months and the SCR in the colder months, has already been proposed as a realistic scenario for Arctic shipping in the previous studies. Since assumptions used in the cost estimations vary among the studies, as discussed by Lasserre, there remain some difficulties when comparing estimated shipping costs. This study aims at establishing a common platform of a wide range of cost estimation assumptions, through clarifying and analysing the cost components contained in the current literature. In addition, interviews with NSR shipping professionals were conducted concerning the NSR fee on an unofficial basis, since typically such fees are determined based on negotiations between ice breaker escort service provider and shipping company. An empirical analysis revealed that NSR/SCR-combined shipping of container cargo between East Asia and Northwest Europe can be commercially feasible.