Statistical confirmation of indirect land use change in the Brazilian Amazon
Statistical confirmation of indirect land use change in the Brazilian Amazon
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024010
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发表时间：
2011-04-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Caldas, Marcellus M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arima, Eugenio Y.;Richards, Peter;Caldas, Marcellus M.
全球对大豆产品和生物燃料需求的扩大对粮食安全和环境构成威胁。引起人们严重关切的一个环境影响是，由于间接土地使用变化，机械化农业侵蚀了现有牧场，使其迁移到边境地区，从而使亚马逊森林消失。许多研究人员假设了这一现象，并根据对巴西亚马逊森林的模拟进行了预测。由于在将远端土地覆被驱动因素与影响点联系起来方面存在概念上的困难，尚未对其进行统计计量。本文克服了这一僵局的空间回归模型，能够连接机械化农业在定居农业地区的牧场转换遥远的，森林边境的扩张。在最近一个时期（2003-2008年）的应用中，该模型表明，国际土地利用变化是重要的，规模相当大。具体来说，在老牧场地区减少10%的大豆产量将使巴西亚马逊森林茂密的县减少40%的森林砍伐。显然，巴西大豆种植者自愿暂停原始森林改造的做法未能阻止扩大大豆生产造成的毁林影响。因此，巴西的环境政策必须注意土地利用、土地利用的变化，这可能使实现其REDD目标的努力复杂化。
Expansion of global demand for soy products and biofuel poses threats to food security and the environment. One environmental impact that has raised serious concerns is loss of Amazonian forest through indirect land use change (ILUC), whereby mechanized agriculture encroaches on existing pastures, displacing them to the frontier. This phenomenon has been hypothesized by many researchers and projected on the basis of simulation for the Amazonian forests of Brazil. It has not yet been measured statistically, owing to conceptual difficulties in linking distal land cover drivers to the point of impact. The present article overcomes this impasse with a spatial regression model capable of linking the expansion of mechanized agriculture in settled agricultural areas to pasture conversions on distant, forest frontiers. In an application for a recent period (2003-2008), the model demonstrates that ILUC is significant and of considerable magnitude. Specifically, a 10% reduction of soy in old pasture areas would have decreased deforestation by as much as 40% in heavily forested counties of the Brazilian Amazon. Evidently, the voluntary moratorium on primary forest conversions by Brazilian soy farmers has failed to stop the deforestation effects of expanding soy production. Thus, environmental policy in Brazil must pay attention to ILUC, which can complicate efforts to achieve its REDD targets.