MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD-ESTIMATES OF THE MORTALITY AND MIGRATION RATES OF THE INFECTIVE LARVAE OF OSTERTAGIA-OSTERTAGI AND COOPERIA-ONCOPHORA
MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD-ESTIMATES OF THE MORTALITY AND MIGRATION RATES OF THE INFECTIVE LARVAE OF OSTERTAGIA-OSTERTAGI AND COOPERIA-ONCOPHORA
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DOI：
10.1017/s0031182000065501
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发表时间：
1986-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
ANDERSON, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
GRENFELL, BT;SMITH, G;ANDERSON, RM
我们提出了一个分析的存活率和迁移率的感染（L3）阶段的奥斯特线虫ostertagia ostertagi和古柏线虫oncophora。虽然大多数的实验室研究表明，L3阶段的生存取决于温度，湿度和幼虫的年龄，一个简单的数学模型的幼虫人口，其中他们的死亡率和迁移率保持不变，提供了良好的协议之间的观察和预测的幼虫计数的模型，其中这些速率过程是明确的函数的幼虫年龄和小气候。粪便和牧草中幼虫死亡率的最大似然估计值分别为0.0284/天和0.00887/天。在温带北方条件下，从粪便到牧草的平均迁移率估计为0.00884/天。最后，我们讨论了可能的规模L3幼虫损失，由于干燥和灌洗（主动或被动迁移到土壤中）。
We present an analysis of the survival and migration rates of the infective (L3) stages of Ostertagia ostertagi and Cooperia oncophora. Although the majority of laboratory studies show that the survival of the L3 stage depends upon temperature, moisture and the age of the larvae, a simple mathematical model of larval demography, in which their mortality and migration rates are held constant, provides as good agreement between observed and predicted larval counts as models in which these rate processes are made explicit functions of larval age and microclimate. Maximum-likelihood estimates of larval mortality rates in the faeces and on the herbage are 0.0284/day and 0.00887/day respectively. The average migration rate from faeces to herbage under temperate Northern European conditions is estimated on 0.00884/day. Finally, we discuss the probable scale of L3 larval losses due to desiccation and lavage (active or passive migration into the soil).