Infectious diseases and endogenous fluctuations
Infectious diseases and endogenous fluctuations
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DOI：
10.1007/s00199-010-0553-y
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发表时间：
2012-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Liu, Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goenka, Aditya;Liu, Lin
本文通过将流行病学动态整合到离散时间单部门增长模型中，建立了一个研究传染病经济影响的框架。具有SIS动力学的传染病影响劳动力，受感染的个体病得太重而不能工作。易感（健康）个体选择提供多少劳动力，使得有效劳动力供给由健康个体的比例（广泛边际）和他们的劳动力供给（密集边际）组成。疾病传播的流行病学明确建模和全球动态的经济变量进行了研究。根据疾病的传染性，疾病可能被根除或成为地方病。如果疾病的传染性足够强，经济就会出现周期和混乱。一个领先的例子说明了该模型：我们展示了系统动态如何随着参数的变化而变化，以及密集的利润率如何响应由于疾病传播而引起的广泛利润率的变化。我们展示了如何通过疾病控制方法来稳定波动。
This paper develops a framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a discrete time one sector growth model. An infectious disease with SIS dynamics affects the labor force and the infected individuals are too ill to work. The susceptible (healthy) individuals choose how much labor to supply so that the effective labor supply comprises of the proportion of healthy individuals (extensive margin) and their labor supply (intensive margin). The epidemiology of disease transmission is modeled explicitly and the global dynamics of the economic variables is studied. Depending on how infectious the disease is, the disease may be eradicated or become endemic. If the disease is infectious enough, cycles and chaos emerge in the economy. A leading example illustrates the model: we show how the system dynamics change as the parameters vary and how the intensive margin responds to changes in the extensive margin due to the spread of diseases. We show how the fluctuations can be stabilized via disease control methods.