Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants
Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.01.007
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发表时间：
2005-05
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
J. Klügel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Klügel
从2000年到2004年，一个大规模的概率地震灾害分析（PEGASOS）作为一个研究项目被创建和执行，由瑞士核电厂公用事业公司赞助，以改进地震风险评估方法，以支持特定工厂的地震灾害评估。该项目采用了SSHAC[高级地震危害分析委员会（SSHAC）， 1997年]的方法。概率地震危害分析建议：不确定性和专家使用指南。NU-REG/CR-6372]程序在其最复杂的方式4。在实际实施之前，进行了详细的审查，包括验证测试和不确定性传播分析。本文介绍了综述的主要结果。综述表明，目前基于逻辑树的PSHA（概率地震危险性分析）方法与SSHAC程序相结合，可能会导致对地震活动较低地区地震危险性的严重高估，因为不确定性固有的无限制积累的可能性。该项目的初步结果没有通过我们在尝试执行PEGASOS分析方法验证过程中使用的任何逻辑地质科学基准测试。遇到的一些问题具有普遍性，在决定瑞士核电工业是否采用推荐的sshac程序作为评估单个核电站地震PRA地震危险性的基础之前，应仔细研究。
From 2000 to 2004 a large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PEGASOS) was created and performed as a research project, sponsored by the Swiss NPP utilities to improve the assessment methodology for seismic risk in support of the plant-specific seismic PRAs. The project followed the methodology of the SSHAC [Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC), 1997. Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. NU-REG/CR-6372] procedures at its most elaborate way—level 4. Before practical implementation was to occur, a detailed review was performed including validation tests and analysis of uncertainty propagation. This paper presents the main results of the review. The review revealed that current PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) methodology as based on logic trees, in conjunction with the SSHAC procedures, potentially leads to a significant overestimation of the seismic hazard in areas with low seismic activity due to the inherent possibilities of unconstrained accumulation of uncertainties. The preliminary results of the project did not pass any of our logical geological–scientific benchmark tests used in our attempts to perform a validation process of the PEGASOS analysis method. Some of the problems encountered are of generic nature and shall be studied carefully before making the decision of whether or not the Swiss nuclear power industry will adopt the recommended use of SSHAC-procedures as a basis for the evaluation of the seismic hazard for individual nuclear power plant seismic PRA without correction.