Statistical modeling of global geogenic fluoride contamination in groundwaters
Statistical modeling of global geogenic fluoride contamination in groundwaters
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DOI：
10.1021/es071958y
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发表时间：
2008-05-15
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Johnson, C. Annette
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amini, Manouchehr;Mueller, Kim;Johnson, C. Annette
使用高氟化物地下水对世界各地数百万人的健康构成威胁。这项研究旨在通过模拟氟化物浓度来提供潜在富氟地下水的全球概况。全球氟化物浓度的大型数据库以及有关环境因素的现有信息，如土壤性质、地质环境以及全球范围内的气候和地形信息，都被用于该模型。该建模方法将地球化学知识与统计方法相结合，设计了一种基于规则的统计程序，将世界划分为8个不同的11个过程区域。对于每个区域，构建了单独的预测模型。最终结果是地下水中氟化物浓度的全球概率图。模型与实测数据的比较表明，在6个工艺区，模型可以解释60-70%的氟化物变化，而在2个工艺区，只能解释30%的实测数据变化。此外，全球概率图与国际文献中描述的氟中毒地区有很好的对应关系。虽然概率图不应该取代氟化物测试，但它可以给出可能的污染的第一个迹象，从而可能支持新的饮用水项目的规划过程。
The use of groundwater with high fluoride concentrations poses a health threat to millions of people around the world. This study aims at providing a global overview of potentially fluoride-rich groundwaters by modeling fluoride concentration. A large database of worldwide fluoride concentrations as well as available information on related environmental factors such as soil properties, geological settings, and climatic and topographical information on a global scale have all been used in the model. The modeling approach combines geochemical knowledge with statistical methods to devise a rule-based statistical procedure, which divides the world into 8 different 11 process regions". For each region a separate predictive model was constructed. The end result is a global probability map of fluoride concentration in the groundwater. Comparisons of the modeled and measured data indicate that 60-70% of the fluoride variation could be explained by the models in six process regions, while in two process regions only 30% of the variation in the measured data was explained. Furthermore, the global probability map Corresponded well with fluorotic areas described in the international literature. Although the probability map should not replace fluoride testing, it can give a first indication of possible contamination and thus may support the planning process of new drinking water projects.