Probabilistic Stability Assessment of Earthen Levees Subjected to Earthquake Loads
Probabilistic Stability Assessment of Earthen Levees Subjected to Earthquake Loads
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DOI：
10.1061/9780784483428.020
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发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lei Wang;S. Tait;S. Khoshnevisan;F. Barati;C. Juang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lei Wang;S. Tait;S. Khoshnevisan;F. Barati;C. Juang
土堤是关键的防洪基础设施，主要由土块组成，以保持水分并确保陆地地区免受洪水侵袭。然而，许多土堤都位于地震活跃区。因此，评估土堤在地震灾害中的可靠性是至关重要的，因为这种结构的破坏可能是灾难性的，并造成生命损失、财产损失和重大的不利经济和社会影响。本文提出了土堤在地震荷载作用下的简化概率评估框架。在此框架下，采用拟静力有限元分析方法对土堤在地震荷载作用下的稳定性进行了分析。拟静力法采用水平静力荷载来模拟地震对土结构的影响。然后，使用一种有效的可靠性方法进行概率评估，该方法通过有限元建模来考虑输入随机变量的不确定性传播。量化了加速度水平对土堤破坏概率的影响。所开发的框架为土堤的概率评价提供了一个有效的工具，便于实践工程师使用。其结果可以帮助工程师在面对地震危险时做出风险知情的决策。通过算例验证了所提框架在地震荷载作用下土堤可靠度评估的有效性。
Earthen levees are critical flood protection infrastructure consisting primarily of earthen masses to retain water and secure the landside area against flooding. However, many earthen levees are located in the active seismic zone. Thus, it is critical to evaluate the reliability of earthen levees in the face of earthquake hazards, since the failure of such structures can be catastrophic and cause loss of lives, damages to properties, and significant adverse economic and societal impacts. This paper presents a simplified probabilistic assessment framework for earthen levees under earthquake loads. In this framework, the pseudo-static method with the finite element analyses is used for the stability analyses of earthen levees under earthquake loads. The pseudo-static method uses a static horizontally applied load to simulate the effect of an earthquake on the earthen structure. Then, the probabilistic assessment is conducted using an efficient reliability method that accounts for propagation of uncertainties from the input random variables through the finite element modeling. The effects of acceleration level on the probability of failure of earthen levees are quantified. The developed framework provides an efficient tool for probabilistic evaluation of earthen levees that is easy-to-use by practicing engineers. The results can help engineers to make a risk-informed decision in the face of earthquake hazards. A case study is utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for the reliability assessment of earthen levees under earthquake loads.